Vendors, retailers, and trade association leaders in the outdoor space expect cautious buying from outdoor retailers to continue in 2026 amid trade and economic uncertainty; however, they continue to see outdoor enthusiasts prioritizing innovation, durability, sustainability, and outdoor adventures.
This is the fourth installment in a series of articles from SGB Media exploring the active lifestyle industry’s outlook for 2026, with the first focused on the perspective of Wall Street analysts and advisors, the second on footwear execs, and the third on execs in the sports & fitness space, and the fourth offering other viewpoints from leaders and entrepreneurs in the outdoor space
The final installment includes additional viewpoints from leaders and entrepreneurs in the outdoor space.
Ted Ayliffe
Founder & CEO, Coulée Coffee Company
“This is a critical moment for sustainability-driven brands to truly break through with consumers. Awareness around plastic and microplastic pollution has never been higher, yet adoption of climate-conscious business models across the industry remains slow. Our outlook for 2026 is that responsible brands will prove they can consistently deliver high-quality products consumers want, at accessible price points, while significantly reducing waste.
“For Coulée Coffee, 2026 marks a major growth phase. We’re moving production to a repurposed manufacturing facility built in 1917 and increasing capacity eightfold, while working diligently to offer fully compostable products free of microplastics, with minimal waste. We believe that scaling our business responsibly is not only the ethically correct course of action given the current ‘climate,’ but also essential to long-term success in the active-lifestyle market.”
Rick Case
Founder & CEO, Nite Ize
“As we launch into 2026, the outdoor industry continues to demonstrate resilience, driven by consumer demand for innovative, high-performance gear that enhances every adventure. For Nite Ize, this reinforces our mission to solve everyday problems through unique, convenient solutions, while continuing to seek out new ideas and strategic opportunities as outdoor participation continues to grow.”
Jeff Cayley
Founder & CEO, Ketl Mtn. Apparel
“As an emerging brand in the outdoor industry, our primary focus is simple: make exceptional outdoor apparel and enjoy the process of doing it. The reality heading into 2026 is that consumer spending is holding up reasonably well, but the industry as a whole is not in a clear growth phase. Most brands are facing the same pressures, from cautious wholesale orders to higher expectations around product differentiation and brand storytelling.
“This is no longer a rising-tide environment. Some brands will grow, others will contract and the determining factors will be how much consumers genuinely love the products and how effectively those brands communicate why they matter. It is less about category expansion and more about earning a larger share of attention, loyalty, and wallet in a market that is largely staying the same size.
“For us, that means staying relentlessly product-driven, investing in design, materials and function without compromise, and pairing that with authentic marketing that reflects how people actually use gear in the real world. Brands that stay focused, remain disciplined and keep a sense of fun and curiosity in what they build will be the ones that stand out as the industry continues to recalibrate in 2026.”
Kris Cody
Founder, Paka
“Consumers are asking better questions: where their products come from, who made them and what they’re made of. Provenance is becoming as important as performance, and brands that can clearly trace their materials and relationships will earn deeper trust.
“Natural fibers will continue to play a bigger role as people look for alternatives to synthetics that deliver comfort, breathability and durability without relying on chemicals or over-engineering. We also expect fewer, better products to define the next phase of growth. The brands that stand out will be those that design with intention, build in close partnership with their supply chains and create pieces meant to be worn often and kept longer. In 2026, authenticity won’t come from louder storytelling; it will come from doing the work to create real impact and letting the product speak.”
Eoin Comerford
Principal, Outsize Consulting, Advisors to Outdoor/Active Industry; The Rock Fight Podcast Co-Host & Consigliere
“Outdoor brands’ sales will likely get off to a slow start in 2026. Retailers have been conservative with preseason orders, placed during the height of tariff turmoil last summer. In addition, many brands are only now introducing price increases to offset at least some of the tariff impact. These increases will hit an already strained consumer, leading to reduced demand for all but the hottest brands and categories. While dollar sales may be close to flat, unit sales are likely to be down in the high single digits.
“Projecting later into the year is almost impossible given the high level of economic uncertainty created by the ever-changing policies of the current administration on both domestic and international fronts.
“There are a few reasons for hope. First, we could see a rollback in tariffs, whether due to the Supreme Court or a pullback by the administration in response to flagging poll numbers. Second, outdoor participation rates remain at record highs, and those participants will continue to need the gear and apparel to support their activities. Third, core outdoor industry consumers tend to be older and more affluent, so they have been less impacted by the affordability crisis.”
Nick Doman
Co-founder & CEO, Ocean Bottle
“Looking into 2026, the active lifestyle space feels resilient. People are still prioritizing health, time outdoors, and community, but they’re also becoming more deliberate buyers. With ongoing cost pressure and the potential for tariff/supply-chain volatility, we expect consumers to reward brands that deliver real quality and longevity rather than novelty: fewer, better products that earn their place in someone’s daily kit.
“Hydration is also becoming less of an accessory and more of a performance habit, from run clubs to commuting to travel. That’s an opportunity to make the ‘active’ choice the easy choice: products that work everywhere, refill effortlessly, and genuinely reduce single-use waste.
“The shift we’re most excited about is that sustainability is moving from a message to a measurable expectation. In 2026, the brands that win will be the ones that can prove impact (not just promise it), build products that last, and make it simple for people to live actively while leaving the places they love better than they found them.”
Kent Ebersole
President, Outdoor Industry Association (OIA)
“As we look ahead to 2026, outdoor businesses are navigating a landscape shaped by complex trade policy, evolving consumer behavior and ongoing economic uncertainty. Clear policy guidance, smarter sustainability compliance and continued investment in participation will be critical to the industry’s long-term health.
“Sustainability, participation and climate resilience will remain central to the industry’s path forward. Expanding regulations and climate volatility present real challenges, but they also create opportunities for innovation, collaboration, and long-term resilience. At the same time, sustaining participation amid shifting demographics will require intentional effort and shared commitment across the industry.
“In the year ahead, OIA is focused on bringing the industry together around shared priorities through advocacy, education and community, helping businesses plan with confidence and build a stronger outdoor economy. That work is anchored by a connected calendar of events spanning executive leadership, policy engagement, practitioner education, commercial exchange, and consumer participation, including OIA Rendezvous, Capitol Summit, Catalyst Conference, Switchback Shows, and Outside Days.
Andrea Ferris
CEO & Co-Founder, Intrinsic Advanced Materials + CiClo
“We’re entering 2026 with a strong sense of momentum and purpose. For over a decade, we’ve been focused on addressing one of the most complex and consequential environmental challenges in modern textiles: microplastic pollution from the shedding of durable synthetics. Tiny plastic fibers (predominantly polyester) travel multiple pathways into the environment, polluting our oceans with an estimated equivalent in weight of more than 50 billion plastic bottles every year. As research increasingly highlights potential human health impacts, concern is now shared by consumers, brands, and manufacturers.
“While intentionally added microplastics such as cosmetic microbeads can be banned, the reality is that durable, high-performance synthetic textiles remain essential across many applications. The challenge is not whether synthetics should exist, but how to address the unintentional release of microplastics throughout a product’s lifecycle. That challenge is now a priority, and action is no longer optional. California’s Responsible Textile Recovery Act marks a turning point, requiring that microplastic pollution from synthetics be addressed as part of a broader shift toward more responsible textile production and consumption. With the world’s fourth-largest economy leading the way, and states like Washington and New York poised to follow, we are clearly at the beginning of a textile’s revolution.
“What’s encouraging is how the industry is responding. Leading brands are putting competition aside to collaborate on scalable solutions. Companies are working with supply chain partners to reduce shedding during manufacturing, improve fiber capture through wastewater treatment processes, and mitigate the impacts of the fibers that inevitably leak into the environment by adopting CiClo technology across synthetic products. These initiatives are laying the groundwork for economies of scale that benefit all. As we look to 2026 and beyond, innovation, regulation, and collaboration are converging to reshape the future of responsible textiles.”
Dirk Friel
Co-Founder, TrainingPeaks and Peaksware Holdings
“The outlook for strength and endurance personal coaching in 2026 is looking very strong, with event participation from triathlon to gravel cycling, to the surge in ultra running events and the growth of hybrid sports continuing to build momentum.
“A couple of distinct trends are worth noting. We are seeing a rapid rise in ultra and trail running, which has pushed athletes to seek expert guidance for terrain-specific conditioning, long-term durability and injury prevention. Beyond traditional endurance sports, personal-adventure disciplines such as alpinism and ski mountaineering are experiencing solid growth. Athletes of all ages are recognizing that coaching is not just about elite performance, but about safety, confidence and achieving meaningful personal goals in demanding environments. Taken together, these trends point to a highly positive future for personal coaching.
Athletes are no longer simply training harder; they are training smarter, valuing expertise, personalization, and long-term development. In 2026, personal coaching is positioned not as a luxury, but as a core component of modern athletic pursuit across performance levels, ages and ambitions.”
Jesse Fritsch
CEO & Co-founder, The Dry Brand
“While tariffs remain a moving target and costs are up across the board, it is not an easy time to launch a new brand. In our case, however, we are genuinely feeling a lot of support. The best brands often come from personal experience, and what we saw within our community and felt ourselves was a need for a different kind of waterproof footwear brand. We saw people like us stepping outside their comfort zones and getting outside in ways they had not before. If we wanted this, chances are others would too. So, despite being advised to wait, we decided to give it an honest shot.
“A brand is about building community, and strong communities are what ultimately support and sustain an industry over the long term. At the end of the day, a strong brand rooted in real community can always find a way forward. That said, we know firsthand that retailers have been understandably hesitant to take on new brands. At the same time, the online community continues to prove there is demand for products people genuinely connect with.
“Brands that stay nimble and closely connected to their community will be better positioned to navigate the year ahead.”
David Gellis
President, Gordini
“Looking ahead into 2026, we envision that the consumer will be determined to select products that offer significant value with a focus on durability, quality, innovation, and an excellent cost value relationship. Excellent value has always been a must for our consumer; however, it is becoming increasingly apparent as the inflationary environment persists.
“We do anticipate retail demand for seasonal products coming into the beginning of the 3rd quarter of 2026 to be strong, particularly regions that have benefited from favorable weather patterns. This is primarily driven by low retail inventory positions as of the first quarter of the year.
“Our customers’ enthusiasm around our category of accessories is high, and demand for products in our non-seasonal portfolio of products remains steady.”
Graham Gephart
Director of Marketing, Zamberlan
Lindsay Hubley
SVP, Sports and Outdoor Division, Emerald
Frank Hugelmeyer
President & CEO, National Marine Manufacturers Association (NMMA)
“Recreational boating and fishing remain the largest contributors to America’s $1.2 trillion outdoor recreation economy, supporting jobs, small businesses and local communities across the country. As we enter 2026, the recreational boating industry is operating in a more predictable, though still evolving, environment, with steady participation helping to support overall market stability.
“While new boat sales were down in 2025, interest in boating remains strong. Consumers continue to get on the water through a range of pathways, from pre-owned boats and entry-level and smaller, trailerable models to boat clubs and shared-access options that align with their budgets and lifestyles. These trends reflect sustained demand for accessibility, value and flexibility across the market.
“Because new boat purchases are often discretionary, consumer confidence, access to affordable credit and broader economic stability will remain important factors in supporting demand as the year unfolds, particularly as the winter boat show season gets underway.”
Glenn Hughes
President & CEO, American Sportfishing Association (ASA)
“2025 was a year defined by uncertainty, and the constantly shifting environment around tariffs dominated nearly every conversation across our industry. With most fishing tackle sourced overseas, and a significant portion coming from China, the impact was felt throughout the supply chain and in every corner of our community. Even so, rod and reel manufacturing remained resilient, with sales trending upward despite higher prices for many goods.
“Looking ahead to 2026, we’re optimistic we’ll see greater stability and clarity in the marketplace, and we’re hopeful for lower tariffs that could ease price pressure and reduce fluctuations on retail shelves. Challenges remain, of course, but this industry has always been built on innovation, adaptability and a deep connection to the outdoors. With America’s 250th anniversary upon us, we have a unique opportunity to highlight the healthy, wholesome benefits of fishing and its ability to bring people together in communities across our great nation, thereby continuing to grow angler participation and fishing tackle sales.”
Craig Kirby
President & CEO, RV Industry Association (RVIA)
“2025 was a year of steadiness and foundational strength for the RV industry. While it was not the massive ‘get right’ rebound year we had hoped for, we closed the year with gains, and there is much to be optimistic about as we head into 2026. With recent adjustments to interest rates, continued enthusiasm for the outdoor lifestyle and ITR Economics projecting further growth, we are well-positioned to see the industry’s upward trajectory continue.
“In the coming year, we will lean into the momentum driven by a younger, more diverse generation of RVers, with Millennials and Gen Z showing the highest purchase consideration for 2026. Go RVing will build on this momentum by bringing the message of freedom and affordability to new audiences. This includes tying RVing to major cultural milestones, including America’s 250th birthday, to ensure RVing remains a centerpiece of the American experience for everyone. Simultaneously, the RV Technical Institute will continue to bolster our industry’s future by recruiting and training the next generation of technicians through expanded partnerships with high schools and community colleges, supported by new Spanish-language testing options that make this rewarding career more accessible than ever before.”
Heather Mason
Executive Director, National Bicycle Dealers Association (NBDA)
“The bicycle industry will approach 2025 with cautious optimism as we navigate an evolving landscape. While we anticipate tariffs to be imposed, our industry has proven resilient and will adapt accordingly.
“Our primary focus must remain on growing ridership to drive customers back through retailers’ doors. This fundamental strategy will be critical to sustained industry health.
“After a year of steep discounts that pressured margins, inventory levels should finally stabilize in the year ahead. Retailers need to rebound by focusing on profitability rather than volume. This means emphasizing pure profit plays, expanding service offerings, developing rental programs, and exploring the growing used bike market, all areas that can deliver healthier margins.
“Both retailers and suppliers must prioritize financial discipline in 2025. Data-driven decision-making will be essential for managing inventory, optimizing SKU selection, and developing smart buying plans. The days of intuition-only purchasing are behind us.
Online sales will likely continue their upward trajectory, making it imperative that brick-and-mortar retailers enhance their digital presence. Investing in technologically advanced websites and leveraging supplier fulfillment programs where available will be key differentiators.
“The challenges ahead are real, from potential tariffs to continued economic uncertainty affecting consumer spending. However, by focusing on sustainable profitability, operational excellence, and meeting customers wherever they prefer to shop, our industry can emerge stronger. The bicycle remains a compelling value proposition for transportation, recreation and wellness, and that fundamental truth will carry us forward.”
“Looking ahead in 2026, the sports and outdoor industry will continue to evolve rapidly, with brands and retailers seeking smarter ways to connect, innovate, and respond to shifting markets. Meeting face-to-face will be mission-critical and having a holistic view will be crucial to navigating the challenges the industry faces. ISPO plays a crucial role in this environment, providing a global platform that brings the industry together to discuss core issues, including participation, trade and sustainability, connect brands and retailers and serve both upstream and downstream markets. By enabling these connections and insights, ISPO helps companies navigate change and drive sustainable growth in a more complex and competitive market.”
Lead image courtesy Paka
See below for the second part of the SGB 2026 Look Ahead with Outdoor Market Leaders:
