Despite strong growth in mainstream channels, sales in the run specialty channel were flat in the first half of 2025, according to the Running Industry Association (RIA). The RIA projects only low-to-mid single-digit growth for the channel for the full year.

The update was included in a “By The Numbers” feature published by RIA Executive Director Terry Schalow in the organization’s recent monthly member newsletter. The data came from Sports Marketing Surveys, the association’s data partner, which aggregates POS sales data from reporting retailers.

Based on an analysis comparing first-half figures from past years to year-end outcomes, the RIA estimates the specialty run industry could see low-single-digit annual growth of around 2 percent to 3 percent. The best hope is a repeat of 2024, when RIA data showed that first-half growth was modest, up 2 percent, but a second-half uptick pushed the run specialty channel to a full-year gain of 4 percent.

Schalow told SGB Executive that he is hopeful that a strong fall running season could elevate momentum over the third and fourth quarters. However, the RIA also said that if headwinds, including those from tariffs and other continuing macroeconomic issues, as well as any unseasonal weather patterns, persist, full-year growth may hover around flat to 1 percent.

The flat result in the first half represents a slowdown from recent years. RIA’s data shows sales grew 4 percent in 2024, 5 percent in 2023 and 3 percent in 2022. In the two years preceding the pandemic, sales growth was more modest, increasing by 2 percent in 2019 and 1 percent in 2018.

Comparisons from 2020 and 2021 were excluded from the RIA report because the pandemic shutdown and supply chain disruptions created volatile swings in sales over those years, which skewed the results.

By month in 2025, January started with a 4 percent gain for the run specialty channel, followed by a 13 percent tumble in February and then a rebound in March with a 10 percent gain, according to RIA data. In the second quarter, April’s sales were up 1 percent, followed by a decline of 5 percent in May and a 1 percent gain in June.

Schalow stressed that not all of RIA’s member stores see flat sales.

“Every store is basically an experiment of one. So, it depends on who you talk to,” said Schalow. “We have stores that were up 30 percent or 40 percent for the half. It’s just jaw-dropping numbers where you ask, ‘How are you doing this?’ But at the other end of the spectrum, some stores are down. So anecdotally, it’s all over the dish.”

According to the RIA report, the flat sales on an aggregate level were likely due to three causes: macro conditions, product cycles and weather impacts.

Month-to-month, new model launches and colorways can cause fluctuations in sales. The effect was especially clear in early 2022 and 2023, according to RIA. Hoka said that timing updates to core franchises, along with clearing older models, hurt sales this year. Schalow said, “So many factors go into the success of a particular release. It’s an inexact science.”

Harsh winters or cool springs often delay sales, particularly at run specialty stores, RIA said. Heat waves in the Midwest and Northeast may have hurt sales in May and June. Schalow added, “Weather always has an impact. But for the most part, runners are going to run.”

Schalow believes that softer sales trends mostly reflect broader macroeconomic concerns with consumer confidence “up and down” amid inflationary pressures and tariff concerns. He said tariffs may have “peeled away a small percentage of customers that would have been willing to spend” in the first half. If footwear prices rise to offset tariff costs, the impact could grow in the back half of the year.

“I believe that tariffs will continue to have an impact on the channel for the balance of the year,” said Schalow. “I don’t believe it’ll be huge, but it’ll be something.”

Run Specialty Missing Run-Inspired Silhouettes Craze
The flat growth comes as many running brands have reported strong gains in the second quarter, driven by strong interest in retro running and run-inspired offerings.

Among the reports:

  • Adidas saw a 25 percent increase in the running category globally during the second quarter.
  • Altra, owned by VF Corp., saw more than 20 percent growth in the second quarter.
  • Asics saw double-digit growth in the U.S. in the second quarter.
  • Brooks achieved 13 percent growth in North America and 19 percent globally in the second quarter.
  • Hoka’s global sales grew 20 percent in the second quarter.
  • Nike delivered high single-digit growth in its performance run styles in its fiscal fourth quarter ended May 31.
  • On’s sales grew 38 percent in constant currencies in the second quarter, including 24 percent in the Americas.
  • Saucony’s sales surged 42 percent.
  • Topo Athletic, owned by Designer Brands, saw sales increase by 45 percent in the second quarter and 62 percent for the first half.

Circana’s point-of-sale data shows strong growth in the Running Footwear category in the first half as many brands are being driven by outsized growth on the Lifestyle side. Run-inspired offerings are a larger category and are growing at twice the rate of Performance Running styles, according to Circana. Beth Goldstein, footwear and accessories advisor at Circana, told SGB Executive, in an exclusive interview, “In specialty, running-inspired is only a fraction of the size of running, but it is growing about 3X faster than running.”

Schalow added that while the run specialty has not benefited as much from the popularity of run-inspired silhouettes on the lifestyle side, the channel is increasingly attracting a more casual runner looking for running shoes to wear at the gym, pair with leggings, or simply as walk-around shoes.

Said Schalow, “It’s not the 40-or-50-mile-a-week runner. It’s someone who views running as part of their fitness lifestyle, or they’re simply on their feet all day. They’re buying running shoes for a lot of reasons outside of being a ‘running enthusiast.’ That true running enthusiast is becoming a smaller and smaller subset of those who shop at run specialty stores. That’s not because the high-mileage runners are not shopping at running stores. They’re still there. It’s because the other consumer demographics have discovered run specialty, and they continue to fuel the growth of the channel.”

Schalow also believes there is a favorable symbiotic relationship between run specialty and the more mainstream channels, and that strength in running lifestyle product is generally a positive for run specialty. He noted that run specialty often launches the brands or trends that the bigger boxes later capitalize on.

“Run specialty is the tip of the spear for consumers,” said Schalow. “It’s the channel that champions these new brands and product solutions and really starts to drive consumer awareness. Whatever’s hot at run specialty, the big box will quickly follow.”

At the same time, sporting goods and more fashion-oriented stores expose running brands and trends to a larger group of consumers who eventually discover the running specialty.

“There’s a certain number of consumers that get into running shoes and like them because they’re comfortable or they like the cosmetics, but they want a better selection and better service. They eventually discover run specialty and run specially is ready to service them and capture them permanently. That then fuels another cycle of growth through the channel. That discovery process has an ebb and flow to it, but it’s just kind of this cycle.”

Schalow also isn’t too concerned about the prospects of low single-digit growth for the year.

Schalow said “healthy” growth for the run specialty industry is around mid-to high-single digits because it’s “manageable growth.” He noted that the hyper-double-digit growth post–pandemic eventually led to overbuying, inventory gluts, cancellations and extensive promotions.  “When you see growth years that are in double digits, that’s great. Don’t get me wrong. It’s wonderful that people are selling a lot of shoes and doing well, but double-digit growth year over year is hard to sustain,” he said.

Schalow is also confident that run specialty stores will find ways to tap new tools to engage with a greater number of local consumers.  Schalow also said that many remain unaware of the run specialty experience, and the bigger box stores are unable to match Run Specialty’s service levels. “Run Specialty just does a great job of making customers feel welcome,” he said.

Schalow also pointed to run specialty’s resiliency over the years, noting that “some so-called industry experts were predicting the death of run specialty” after the huge level of growth in the early to late aughts cooled off with several years of modest growth. But the industry still managed gains.

“It wasn’t giant growth, but it was growth nonetheless,” said Schalow. “So, whether it’s low- or mid-single digit growth for this year, that still equates to about a $1.6 billion channel. That’s a big chunk of money.”

Image courtesy Runner’s Roost