Although some analysts questioned whether On Holding can continue to rapidly expand on a premium-pricing model, the wide majority remained bullish on the Swiss sportswear brand’s prospects following its Investor Day this week that saw the company set a new three-year growth goal above expectations.

On Holding AG (ONON) expects sales during the 2026–2029 period to expand at a high-teens rate on a constant currency basis to reach CHF 5.6 billion in 2029 ($7 billion) at current FX rates. Profitability targets include gross margins reaching at least 65.0 percent by 2029, adjusted EBITDA margin over 22 percent by 2029, and an adjusted EBITDA CAGR from 2026 to 2029 above 20 percent.

Among the drivers of the three-year outlook:

  • Over 75 percent of the absolute net sales growth is expected to come from running, lifestyle sneakers and apparel, with each making a similar contribution in size. Apparel is targeted to triple over the next three years, led by a focus on women. A second driver is other performance footwear growth in areas like tennis, outdoor, and training. A small percentage of the growth is expected to come from new sports like golf and global football (soccer).
  • By region, the Americas is expected to deliver low- to mid-teens revenue growth over the next three years; EMEA, high-teens to low-twenties growth; and APAC, mid-to-high twenties.
  • DTC is expected to increase to half of sales by 2029 from 45 percent currently as On adds 100 new stores, approximately doubling the fleet.
  • Gross margins are expected to expand only slightly through 2029 versus the approximately 65 percent expected in 2026 as the benefit of increased DTC selling and operating efficiencies is partly offset by reinvestments in product innovation.

On also launched its first stock buyback program of up to $1 billion and indicated it was shifting its reporting to U.S. dollars from Swiss Francs as early as 2027 given North America is now its biggest region and to reduce the impact of foreign currencies.

Shares of On rose $2.07, or 7.6 percent, to $29.39 on the day of the event, Tuesday, September 22, but remain well off this year’s starting price of $46.48 due to investor growth concerns in a promotional and competitive athletic footwear space.

Analysts remain largely bullish on the stock. According to the Wall Street Journal, On has 21 “Buy” ratings, six “Overweight” ratings, five “Hold” ratings, and one “Sell” rating. Four analyst firms – Barclay’s, Needham, Williams Trading and BMO Equity Research – raised their price targets following the event but the wide majority maintained their positions and price targets on On’s stock.

At Needham, Tom Nikic retained his “Buy” rating while raising his price target to $40 from $37. The analyst wrote, “Amid a challenging athleticwear environment, ONON provided a compelling multi-year roadmap, with 3-year financial targets that exceeded Street expectations (high-teens revenue CAGR, while we think the buyside was expecting low- or mid-teens). Heading into the event, we were worried that even if they provided an optimistic outlook, investors would view it skeptically, but management seems to have threaded the needle nicely, and offered an outlook that is both bullish and believable. Now, execution will be key in order to clear the high bar they’ve set for themselves.”

At BMO Equity Research, Kelly Crago, raised her price target to $33 from $28 but kept her “Market Perform” rating.

Crago said in a note that she remains skeptical on Lightspray’s growth potential with such innovations taking time to gain mass consumer adoption and wasn’t enthused on the lifestyle offerings On showed at the event outside the CloudTilt, which she described as “a must-have among Gen Z.” However, she said the upcoming performance product “looks very good” and should differentiate On from competitors and also believes golf will be an “obviously ‘win’” for the brand.

Crago said of golf, “The product coming to market in March 2027 has taken inspiration from the infamous Roger sneaker, offers unique/differentiated colorways vs. the competition and has the most obvious halo into lifestyle. We see a big untapped market opportunity for ONON among men who already wear ONON lifestyle product (many wear the Rogers to play golf already).”

The analyst said she’s “incrementally more positive” on On but kept her rating at “Market Perform” given the risks On is taking on as it “transitions away from the core legacy silhouettes that carried its business up until this point (the classic Cloud 6 silhouette comes to mind).” She also said only a few brands, citing Nike, Adidas, Skechers and New Balance, have reached over $7 billion in annual sales and they all leaned on some sales at mass distribution that On is looking to avoid.  Crago said, “If any brand can achieve that scale while relying only on premium pricing/distribution, ONON is likely the brand to do it; however, we see a potentially less linear path than what management’s current ambitious financial targets imply.”

At Telsey Advisory Group, Cristina Fernández kept her “Outperform” rating at a $43 price target. She said On’s three-year targets “were better than expected and support On’s still strong opportunity for growth and disciplined execution at a time when the broader athletic footwear market is seeing some slowdown.”

Of the two new categories On is entering in 2027, she said golf is “likely having a more immediate impact on sales given the golf consumer has more overlap with On’s existing consumer.”

Fernández concluded, “We continue to see growth driven by: 1) product innovation; 2) 100 store openings over the next three years; 3) increased penetration in apparel, training and tennis as well as entry into golf and football in 2027; and 4) expansion in underpenetrated markets such as APAC, parts of Europe and Latin/South America.”

At Citi Research, Paul Lejuez kept his “Buy” rating at a $55 price target. He believes On’s high-teens sales CAGR target is achievable “through growth in core and new categories (like golf/football that have an overall brand halo).” He also believes its gross margin and earnings targets are doable despite investments in DTC and apparel and exposure to wholesale selling due to the brand’s commitment to full-price selling. Lejuez said, “We view On as a special brand that has just taken a step forward on the global athletic stage with their entry into global football, while at the same time unlocking low-hanging fruit with entry into golf (which we think can have a more immediate impact). While near-term pressures in athletic have driven reduced F26 wholesale sell-in, this is a temporary dynamic and should not cloud the long-term growth oppty.”

At UBS, Jay Sole reiterated his “Buy” rating at a $73 target price. He said On’s new financial targets are “likely a positive for sentiment,” for the stock, believing sales guidance topped investor expectations and robust margin targets countered fears that entering new sports categories would depress margins. Sole said, “We believe this plan will resonate with investors since this type of playbook has historically worked very well for athletic wear companies and On has already shown it can execute this type of plan.”

He also cited the stock buyback plan as “another positive” as well as its full-year guidance affirmation. Sole concluded in his “Buy” rating, “On’s continued focus on innovation, performance, athletes, sports, direct-to consumer selling, and commitment to maintaining a premium, full-price brand image will lead to industry leading sales growth and upside earnings surprises.”

At Jefferies, Randy Konik reiterated his “Underperform” rating at a $20 price target. The analyst said that while On exceeded its prior three-year targets that ran from 2023 to 2026, it missed its goal of having apparel and China each reach 10 percent of the mix this year to make the accomplishment “thinner than the highlight reel suggests.”

He said On also faces elevated fixed overhead as store expansion ramps up and described the new categories the brand is entering as “unproven ideas.”

However, Konik was particularly skeptical that On will be able to hit its ambitious growth targets while remaining committed to full-price selling and avoiding channels that typically discount. He said, “The macro is tougher, Nike is reinvesting, and wholesale remains a big part of distribution, which is where inventory imbalances show up first and get cleared through price. Inventory already sits well ahead of sales, and our checks keep finding core product discounted.”

Indeed, he believes On’s premium-driven growth plan rings similar to what was heard at Lululemon’s 2022 Investor Day. Konik said, “The setup rhymes. A premium brand at peak brand heat, a bold multiyear plan, category and geography expansion, and a full-price story presented as structural. LULU used to sell roughly 95 percent of product at full price under the same playbook. Then competition arrived, industry trends softened, and markdowns followed. We see the same sequence available to ONON.”

Baird Equity Research’s Jonathan Komp maintained his “Outperform” rating at a $55 price target. The analyst said On’s “reinforced leadership team, premium growth focus, and robust innovation pipeline (‘generational’ across performance, apparel, global football, golf) were on full display” at the event. He added that On’s three-year targets “look reasonable, with several possible upside levers if newer initiatives scale faster.”

He expects minimal contribution in the near-term from On’s two new sports verticals, global football and golf, estimating those categories will only make up 3 percent of On’s 2029 revenue. However, he believes football provides “very strong cross-over/lifestyle appeal,” while golf “in our view, represents a logical adjacent category, with product strong, especially considering its positioning around comfort and performance (waterproofing, stability).”

On his “Outperform” rating, Komp wrote in a note, “We view ONON as a well-positioned and attractive early-stage growth story that is capable of leveraging its authentic brand positioning blending performance and lifestyle/fashion to capture a substantial long-term runway.” He added that despite the pop following the event, On’s stock “looks too low if revamped innovation and newer launches drive growth at/above the 2027-2029E targets.”

At Williams Trading, Sam Poser raised his price target to $31 from $27 but kept his “Hold” rating.

On the positive side, Poser wrote in a note that his team was impressed by the “product innovation, the upcoming entries into the global football (Soccer) and golf categories, the unity of the entire On team, and the decision to change its financial accounting from Swiss Francs to the U.S. dollar.”

However, he’s unsure whether On will be able to reach its growth targets, as the growth seems tied in large part to extending the brand’s reach at Foot Locker and JD Sports and he doesn’t think the On brand “aligns well” with the fashion athletic customer. At Foot Locker, for instance, On is likely ”highly productive” at Times Square and on 34th Street in Manhattan due to tourist traffic but is “likely far less productive” at more inner-city stores on Flatbush Avenue in Brooklyn and 125th Street in Harlem, said Poser.

Poser also believes On’s deceleration in wholesale sales in the Americas region in the second quarter was because of On’s management’s “lack of understanding of the nuances and differences between stores in its various distribution channels.” He believes further investments in “ground support” teams will be required to coordinate growth across various wholesale accounts.

BNP Paribas Equity Research’s Laurent Vasilescu kept his “Outperform” rating at a $45 target. He wrote in a note, “We think On can exceed FY29 targets of ~$7bn revs. and 22 percent+ EBITDA margin as was the case with its last 3-year algo. Bears point to difficulty in scaling beyond certain rev. thresholds, but we note that its target only implies ~45m pairs – suggesting a long runway. $7bn rev. is still below Skechers and New Balance, which exceed $9bn.”

Stifel’s Peter McGoldrick reiterated his “Buy” rating at a $41 price target. The analyst wrote in a note, “ONON remains the #1 share gainer in athletic footwear in our view, and we remain compelled by brand momentum & see the discount valuation as overly pessimistic.”

Bernstein Research’s Aneesha Sherman maintained her “Outperform” grade at a $62 price target. She wrote in a note, “On’s Investor Day brought a stream of good news: Mid-term targets above expectations, new share buyback, more Running innovation, entering Football and Golf, and launching an expanded Apparel assortment. FY26 guide is reiterated despite a promotional environment, and longer term this could remain the most compelling compounder in Global Sportswear, at a historically low valuation.”

Image courtesy On Holding AG