Asics was among the few brands showing notable growth in popularity with teens in Stifel’s Back-to-School 2026 Athletic Footwear Survey, with demand for many legacy brands being impacted by a lack of newness. Nike showed some recovery, but it was led by Air Force 1. New Balance and Adidas held onto second and third popularity ranks, respectively, but shares eroded year-over-year. The survey showed upstart brands On and Hoka gaining minimal traction in youth lifestyle footwear.

In the study, Peter McGoldrick, Stifel’s lead analyst in the space, called out “lack of newness” as the broader theme in the survey.

“Stifel’s 2026 back-to-school footwear survey at 110 retail doors and e-commerce sites shows a dearth of inspiration, with the most popular products still fitting the same hoops classics/retro runner rubric from 2025,” wrote McGoldrick in the report

The analyst added, “We look for innovation and fresh styling to stimulate incremental volume demand or drive a broader fashion cycle – that didn’t happen.


Nike remained the most-popular brand with Air Force 1 reclaiming the top spot among the most frequently mentioned popular shoes. Nike or Jordan were mentioned as popular by 45.8 percent of stores, up 7.6 percentage points y/y (year-over-year) from all-time low levels of 38.2 percent popularity in BTS 2025, but still well off levels in recent decades, including 61.4 percent in BTS 2024 and 88.2 percent in BTS 2023.

Driving the gains was a resurgence of the Air Force 1, mentioned in 38.2 percent of stores (+15.5ppts y/y), offset by diminished presence of the Dunk (-20.0 ppts to 21.8 percent of store popularity mentions). McGoldrick stated, “Together, these hoops classics are legacy sportswear products that have been in the top five for several years. We would prefer to see different styles and platforms resonate with the youth audience and continue to see hoops classic concentration as a risk to revenue growth.”

McGoldrick noted that Nike also saw a rebound in Stifel’s All-Star 2026 survey aligned with the NBA All-Star game, but the gains were higher in the All-Star 2026 survey, up 12.7 ppts y/y to 64.5 percent of popularity mentions.

New Balance ranked second with 20.0 percent of popularity mentions by stores, but was down 10.9 ppts y/y. McGoldrick noted that New Balance’s pullback comes after company’s “dad shoe” emerged as the leader in retro sneakers, climbing to nearly a third of mentions in Stifel’s BTS ’25 survey to represent the “largest competitive threat to Nike’s dominance” in decades. New Balance received no mention among popular models as recently as Stifel’s BTS 2022 survey.

McGoldrick said New Balance’s decline offers “evidence that the category is broadening past a single winner as competitors release their own retro franchises.” The survey showed Asics appeared to be the “clearest beneficiary” of New Balance’s lost momentum.

Adidas, at third, was cited as popular by 15.3 percent of store checks, down 7.0 ppts year-over-year, but still ahead of BTS 2024 levels (13.6 percent) and after minimal mentions in the three prior years. The survey showed reduced y/y popularity in terrace styles (i.e., Samba, Campus) whicc hurt Adidas’ popularity ranking.

Asics, ranking fourth in popularity, saw the largest y/y gain, up 6.8ppts to 9.3 percent. The gains were attributed to the popularity of the Gel-1130 within the broadening retro running opportunity.

On was recognized as the most popular brand in just 3.3 percent of checks (+0.8 ppts y/y) while Hoka was cited as most popular in 0.5 percent (-1.3ppts y/y). McGoldrick said, “Style mentions declined for both brands, suggesting a mismatch in occasion, price and demographics; we believe domestic athletic specialty and sporting goods are important channel drivers over the next 5 years.”

Vans styles were referenced as most popular in 1.1 percent (+0.6 ppts y/y) of checks, although the survey focus on athletic specialty and sporting goods channels is not core to Vans’ distribution. Within the “Other” category, Puma and Saucony were the majority contributors to the 4.8 percent share (+3.4 ppts y/y).

Style Popularity

Among styles, Retro Runners remain the most popular (+1ppts y/y indexed popularity to 38 percent) and benefited from increased diversity with the emergence of Asics Gel-1130. McGoldrick wrote, “Retro Runners continue to have wide brand representation with New Balance, Nike, Saucony, and Asics representing products with credible consumer traction.” The more-modest growth was still seen as a signal that growth is peaking.

Hoops Classics (+6ppts y/y indexed popularity to 31 percent) marked a comeback as a broader style, led by Air Force 1’s return to popularity. McGoldrick said, “Nike (including Jordan Brand) is the only player in this category, and the return to popularity from Air Force 1 showed strong consumer re-adoption for this style category which we believe to be low-20s percent of NKE consolidated revenue.”

Contemporary Running (-3ppts y/y indexed popularity to 13 percent) continues to lose ground as a style in part blamed on Hoka and On taking the “limited shelf space versus other style categories.” Sell-throughs were also impacted by less promotional activity within contemporary running styles. McGoldrick wrote, “We contemplate that both channel distribution and sell-through management are intentional for current strategic objectives of further penetration into athletic specialty and sporting goods channels.”

Terrace styles, a category dominated by Adidas, lost 4 ppts y/y in indexed popularity to 12 percent in the survey, following flatter y/y trends in Stifel’s BTS 2025 survey. McGoldrick stated in the report, “Adidas remains the de-facto player in this style and the lack of product innovation (versus retro and contemporary running styles), and continued prevalence of the Adidas Samba, makes us believe there is limited pathway for forward growth in this consumer environment.”

Total Retailer References By Brand

With checks of brick-and-mortar stores, Stifel’s survey also tracks the frequency of total references of brands and particular styles. For Back-to-School 2026, stores referenced Nike in 85 percent of checks, New Balance in 58 percent of checks, Adidas in 42 percent of checks, and the Jordan brand in 33 percent of checks. Adidas brand experienced the largest y/y decline, referenced in -12 ppts fewer checks compared to Back-to-School 2025. New Balance references decreased -5 ppts y/y after increasing +19 ppts y/y in BTS 2025 vs BTS  2024.

Asics’ popularity referenced in 27 percent of checked stores, up 7 ppts y/y, led by favorable trends towards retro styles “for which Asics has strong heritage” and mentions for the Gel-1130 and Gel-NYC. The survey found Asics’s presence more prominent at JD Sports’ banners (i.e., JD, Finish Line, Hibbett) than in Dick’s and Academy.

On (down 4 ppts to 6 percent) was only mentioned by Dick’s Sporting Goods, reflecting the sporting goods-weighted distribution footprint. Within the calls made to Dicks, 36 percent of them mentioned On. Hoka references (down 6 ppts y/y to 9 percent) were also skewed to a few retailers, with Dick’s (20 percent of its calls) and Foot Locker (8 percent of its calls) being the only retailers to mention the brand.

Puma brand popularity was referenced in 5 percent of stores (flat y/y), driven by the Puma Speedcat.

Saucony popularity was referenced in 5 percent of stores (-2 ppts y/y) following new distribution in 2025 that saw the brand mentioned for the first time in the history of Stifel’s survey dating back to 2008. Saucony narrowed its lifestyle-oriented wholesale distribution after Fall 2025.

Crocs brand popularity was referenced in 2 percent of stores (+2ppts y/y) “driven by new products that have resonated well with consumers,” according to the study.

Image courtesy of Asics