Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc., scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Thursday, March 12, is expected to again exceed guidance, but investors will be eager to hear about FY26 guidance and the timing of sales and margin recovery at the recently-acquired Foot Locker business.

Investors are also reportedly concerned that the momentum for the legacy Dick’s Sporting Goods chain is slowing after a post-pandemic boost.

In reporting third-quarter results on November 25, Dick’s issued guidance that called for earnings for its core Dick’s business in the fourth quarter to arrive in the range of $3.73 to $4.03, up from $3.62 a year ago.

Consensus estimates for the fourth quarter are tough to nail down, as some analysts are including the impact of the Foot Locker acquisition completed last September in calculations and others are excluding it. According to Yahoo Finance, EPS estimates for the fourth quarter from 21 analysts covering Dick’s range from $1.67 to $4.15.

The health of Foot Locker, excluded from Dick’s forecast, is expected to be a key investor focus.

In releasing third-quarter results, Dick’s projected Q4 gross margins for Foot Locker business will be down between 1,000 and 1,500 basis points to clean unproductive inventories and support “a fresh start in 2026 and reset the business for long-term success.” Dick’s officials indicated that, excluding those one-time inventory clearance efforts, Q4 operating income for the Foot Locker business was expected to be slightly negative in the fourth quarter, with pro-forma comp sales expected to be down mid- to high-single-digits.

DKS shares sank as low as $166.37 in April 2025 following news of the planned acquisition of the challenged Foot Locker business but recovered to as high as $237.31 by October before settling back to close this past Friday at $197.25.

Citi Research Reiterates “Buy” Rating
In its Dick’s Q4 preview note, Citi Research’s Paul Lejuez reiterated his “Buy” rating at a $280 price target.

He expects Dick’s to deliver earnings in the fourth quarter for its core business above guidance, with Dick’s comps expected to climb 3 percent versus the consensus estimate of 2 percent. He predicts Foot Locker comps to be down 7.0 percent against the consensus average of down 7.3 percent and may top his expectations due to strong web traffic. Lejuez based his assumptions in part on Citi’s credit card data, Placer traffic data and Similarweb web traffic findings.

Lejuez wrote that, beyond guidance, investors will be interested in hearing whether Dick’s management identifies any additional synergies from the Foot Locker merger beyond the $100 million to $125 million in cost savings already identified, which are largely from sourcing and procurement. Lejuez wrote, “We believe management is likely to speak to additional potential synergies in other areas of the business, including in corporate overhead, IT/marketing and within their distribution network.”

Lejuez does not expect to hear a major store-closing plan on the analyst call, as he believes Dick’s is “still analyzing the fleet,” but he sees potential store closures at Champ Sports because the banner competes more directly with Dick’s flagship chain in many locations. He also believes the kids’ business at the flagship Foot Locker chain would do better with the closures of some Kids Foot Locker doors.

Finally, Lejuez will be listening to hear Dick’s management’s confidence that the core Dick’s business will continue its momentum in FY26, including any likely boost from the World Cup. He also wants to hear Dick’s management’s thoughts on when Foot Locker’s comps will inflect positive and whether the drivers will be improved Nike allocation, better access to “growth brands,” or other remerchandising initiatives.

Lejuez stated, “Management has previously pointed to 2H26 as the time when they will feel better about the overall FL assortment, so we will listen for any change in that timeline, and whether 3Q26 (back to school) is the point at which they expect comp stabilization/inflection.”

Lejuez expects Dick’s will guide earnings for FY26 to a range of $14.40 to $14.90, up from FY25 guidance of $14.40 at the midpoint. He noted that Dick’s management previously indicated Foot Locker should be accretive in FY26. Lejuez is targeting $15.13 for Dick’s in FY26, including a 60-cent benefit from share repurchases. He expects guidance to call for same-store growth in the 1 to 3 percent range at the core Dick’s business and flat comps at Foot Locker, with gains in the second half offsetting declines in the first.

UBS Reiterates its “Buy” Rating
UBS’ Michael Lasser reiterated his “Buy” rating at a $275 price target.

In a note, Lasser said there’s a “great deal of complexity” surrounding Dick’s, including what the “go-forward DKS/FL enterprise looks like,” whether the momentum of the stand-alone Dick’s brand continues, and the trajectory of Foot Locker’s turnaround.

He wrote, “As we see it, having some clarity and resolution around these topics should be a positive for DKS investment case. While the stock could be volatile around the print as it seems like there’s ‘a lot of boxes to check,’ we think having this event out of the way will be a positive catalyst for the shares. Thus, we remain bullish.”

Outside of FY26 guidance, Lasser believes the same-store performance in the quarter of Dick’s legacy business will be a key concern for investors. While consensus estimates are calling for a comp gain of 2.1 percent, he believes “the buyside bar is now at [about] 3.0 percent for DKS stand-alone this quarter.”

Second, Lasser believes investors will be looking for “some validation on how the FL turnaround is progressing,” particularly progress on clearing out stale inventories across Foot Locker’s chains. He added, “In addition, we think the market will respond well if the company can lay out a concrete path back to FL operating income in the $100mm – $200mm range. This would further validate the expectation of modest EPS accretion from FL in 2026 (excluding one-time costs).”

Beyond the quarter, catalysts to drive Dick’s stock gains may be supported by the distribution of tax refunds, World Cup benefits, the House of Sports rollout, and synergies from Foot Locker arriving ahead of expectations, according to Lasser.

Lasser added, “These could all provide sources of potential upside. These factors should help overshadow the concerns that have weighed on the stock, including a deceleration in the core Dick’s business, the fading contribution from the hydration category, increased competition in the footwear category, and continued investment in operating expenses to support the business. Importantly, with shares currently trading at 13.6x NTM [next twelve months] PE, we view the risk/reward on DKS as skewed to the upside.”

Morgan Stanley Reiterates “Overweight” Rating
At Morgan Stanley, Simeon Gutman reiterated his “Overweight” rating at a $260 price target.

The analyst expects comps at the Dick’s SG legacy business to slow to 1.5 percent growth in the fourth quarter after expanding in the mid-single digits year-to-date due to difficult comparisons against robust comp gains in the 2024 and 2203 fourth quarters. Gutman added, “That said, we believe underlying momentum remains intact, with DKS benefiting from ongoing elevation of the in-store experience, strengthened omnichannel capabilities, continued growth in the GameChanger user base, and early traction in monetizing the DICK’s Media Network.”

With gross margin growth supported by both merchandise margin and supply chain leverage and the SG&A rate expected to be relatively flat as growth investments moderate versus the first half of 2025, Morgan Stanley expects the core Dick’s business to achieve an operating margin of 10.8 percent in the fourth quarter, up 70 basis points. Gutman believes Foot Locker’s enterprise comps “remain challenged,” with a likely decline in the high single-digits, alongside “heavy markdown activity” over the holiday selling season.

Going forward, Gutman expects guidance to call for comp growth in the range of 1 percent to 3 percent at the core Dick’s business with a stable adjusted operating margin of 11.1 percent. He expects Foot Locker to be “modestly accretive” to consolidated adjusted EPS in FY26, excluding one-time charges, on flat comps.

Gutman said, “We will be looking for further color on possible FL cost synergies longer-term (in addition to the initial medium-term target of $100m to $125m in procurement and sourcing efficiencies that was provided at the May 15th announcement), shedding of underperforming assets, and the possibility of share repurchases.”

Telsey Advisory Group Reiterates “Outperform” Rating
At Telsey Advisory Group, Cristina Fernández reiterated her “Outperform” rating at a $245 target.

Fernández predicts Dick’s had a “strong holiday season,” with comps up 2.0 percent on top of a gain of 6.4 percent in the year-ago quarter. She sees Foot Locker comps declining 8 percent in the quarter versus Dick’s guidance for Foot Locker calling for declines in the mid-single to high-single digits. Fernández expects Dick’s operating margin to expand 77 basis points to 10.7 percent with the benefit of full-price selling and a favorable category mix while forecasting Foot Locker generated a negative operating margin of 0.6 percent.

She expects a significant focus on the call to be 2026 guidance, particularly expectations for the Foot Locker business. Fernández said her team will focus on Dick’s merchandising and store plans for the year. On Foot Locker, Fernández will be focused on inventory composition coming out of the quarter, Dick’s test of merchandise changes at 11 locations, and plans for Foot Locker’s approximately 2,300 doors. Sources told her that up to 200 U.S. stores could close. She’ll also be listening for Dick’s strategy for Foot Locker’s international locations, any new investments to improve Foot Locker’s operations, and more details on synergies.

Fernández wrote, “Overall, while the Foot Locker acquisition creates noise near-term, we believe Dick’s is uniquely positioned to improve the business given its sector expertise, relationship with brands, and track record of execution. Furthermore, the core Dick’s business remains well positioned given its structural advantages: 1) strong and diversified merchandising; 2) high full price selling; and 3) an omnichannel business that benefits from off mall locations.”

Image courtesy Dick’s Sporting Goods