Growing adoption of GLP-1 drugs could boost annual apparel spending to $13 billion as users splurge on new apparel to support shrinking sizes during their weight-loss journeys, according to Bernstein Research. Athletic apparel brands, off-pricers and online personal styling services (e.g., Stitch Fix) are expected to be the big beneficiaries of the trend.

“We expect that GLP-1 users will expand their apparel shopping basket size for 1-3 years, including both the multiple size changes during their weight loss journey as well as replacing their entire wardrobe (and perhaps shifting the styles and types of clothing as well) once they have reached their goal weight,” according to a report from Bernstein’s analyst team covering U.S. Apparel & Specialty Retail, led by Aneesha Sherma.

The report estimates that those taking GLP-1 drugs cover a “very wide range” from 5 percent to 15 percent of U.S. adults between the ages of 18 and 65, implying the number of those using GLP-1 is in the range of 10 million to 30 million.

Based on the annual Bernstein Shopper Survey of 4,000 U.S. shoppers, Sherman estimates GLP-1 adoption has grown this past year from 11 percent at the end of 2024 to 16 percent at the close of 2025. With the recent approval of the drug in pill form, GLP-1 adoption is expected to accelerate further, with Bernstein’s U.S. Biopharma analyst team estimating that the number of U.S. patients will expand at a mid-20s CAGR through 2030.

In coming up with its estimate for GLP-1’s increasing adoption’s impact on apparel, Bernstein’s team noted that studies show a typical weight loss over one year of GLP-1 usage is between 10 percent and 20 percent, equaling between 20 to 50 pounds and one to five sizes lost per adult. Assuming each shopper buys between a “modest” five to eight items for each size they drop, that would be the equivalent of 150 million to 700 million items purchased, or about a 1 percent to 4 percent boost in total unit volume of apparel sold in the U.S. per year.

Assuming an average unit retail (AUR) of $18 for an apparel item in the U.S., Bernstein estimated an expected apparel boost of $3 billion to $13 billion, or in the low single digits, at the size of the current U.S. apparel market.

Sherma wrote in the study that the AUR of $18 “may be a conservative estimate,” as GLP-1 users tend to skew toward higher-income households compared to the general population, given its current cost.

Sherma also noted that Bernstein’s annual Shopper Survey shows stronger apparel spending among GLP-1 users than among non-users. Bernstein’s survey, taken in November 2025, showed that 71 percent of respondents using the drug spent more on apparel in 2025 compared to 2024, with only 51 percent of non-GLP-1 users. Similarly, 59 percent of GLP-1 users expect to spend more on apparel in 2026 compared to 2025, and 41 percent of non-GLP-1 users.

Athletic Brands
As far as winners in the apparel sector, athletic apparel brands (e.g., Nike, Adidas, Lululemon) are expected to benefit as GLP-1 users see the appeal of athletic/athleisure apparel during their weight-loss process.

Based on analysis of internet commentary on Reddit and Facebook, as well as survey findings, Bernstein found that GLP-1 users over-index in purchases of athleisure, in part because the items are “stretchy, adjustable, and more forgiving” and can be used across multiple sizes. Bernstein also pointed to a Sunlight.com survey that showed Nike and Adidas topped the list of brands GLP-1 users are most likely to buy.

Bernstein further pointed to a tendency among GLP-1 users to engage in more sports and other physically active hobbies, which should also benefit athletic brands. Sherma wrote in the report, “People who lost considerable weight tend to pick up new active hobbies (some common examples we found joining a sports league, group workout clubs like CrossFit or HYROX, dog walking, walking/ jogging). They also tend to engage in more activity/socializing than before.”

Off-Pricers
Off-pricers such as TJX Cos., Ross Stores and Burlington Stores are also expected to benefit, as GLP-1 users look for ways to save money while increasing apparel spending amid size drops. Said Sherma, “Consumers would be able to resize their wardrobes for multiple iterations of down-sizing at much better value than full price retail.”

Sherma said Bernstein’s research shows that GLP-1 users are more likely to shop at off-price stores, according to surveys.

Also, GLP-1 users are adopting a “treat yo-self!” attitude and showing a tendency to enjoy shopping for apparel more and even try new brands and trends as they lose weight. Sherma writes in the study, “Given off-price’s vast selection, treasure hunt style store experience, and quality assortment, the category could benefit more from those that hit their goal weights. Also, as consumer preferences shift during weight loss, Off-pricers should benefit given the wide variety of categories carried at stores.”

Personal Styling Services
Bespoke clothing services are also poised to benefit from the trend by helping guide GLP-1 users through their weight-loss journey. Sherma noted that Stitch Fix identifies GLP-1 users through an onboarding questionnaire and sends personalized messages to them showing how the service can adjust for someone going through a body transformation, including stylist recommendations based on sizing changes.

Matt Baer, Stitch Fix’s CEO, remarked on the GLP-1 opportunity on a quarterly call in March, “We are out in market and have been for a while explaining to consumers that are on a GLP-1 medication that, as their body transforms, they have the ability to work with a personal stylist to help ensure that they have everything that they need so that they can dress in clothing that fits at each stage of that weight loss journey that they are on. We have seen positive results in terms of how that is helping them improve their confidence and how that is helping them improve their ability to get dressed and outfit themselves on a daily basis. We have also seen that it also shows up in our data.

“Client mentions of weight loss in their Fix request notes, as an example, have tripled over the last two years. It surged 75 percent year over year just this past quarter. What that tells me is that the work that we have been doing to improve the segmentation and targeting within our marketing capabilities is working extremely well, and that the quality and superiority of our service is really resonating with those clients. We will continue to lean in, and we will continue to serve that demographic at a really high level.”

Bernstein’s research showed that not all categories are expected to benefit as upgrades will likely be prioritized. Sherma wrote, “Rather than replacing an entire wardrobe multiple times, users tend to focus on necessities such as work clothes. The logic stands: no need to resize your oversized bedtime t-shirt, but you don’t want your work jacket to look like it’s wearing you.”

Image courtesy iStock / Charts courtesy Bernstein