AlixPartners’ annual consumer outlook forecasts a sharp, accelerating pullback in global spending intentions in 2026, with the retrenchment highlighted by high-income consumers and China.

The “Spending, Disrupted: AlixPartners’ 2026 Global Consumer Outlook” study, based on a survey of over 13,000 consumers across nine countries, found that a swing toward lower planned spending widened by over 60 percent year-over-year to 18 percentage points (ppt) higher than those who planned to spend more.

AlixPartners said the heightened frugal sentiment reflects the broader economic uncertainty that is reshaping financial priorities and mirrors the reduction in spending forecast by consumers in 2024, when many regions were grappling with significant inflation and interest rate spikes that have yet to fully recede.

“Consumers across virtually every demographic are resetting their household budgets,” said Randy Burt, Americas leader, consumer products at AlixPartners. “Younger shoppers and high-income earners, both traditionally more resilient, are signaling a retreat. This reflects not only the lingering impact of inflation and muted wage growth but a broader shift toward more selective, value-driven consumption.”

“Businesses must recognize that this is not a cyclical dip; it’s a structural reset of value,” said Paul Martin, global retail growth leader at AlixPartners. “Winning in 2026 will require sharper value-led pricing, more personalized offers and customer experiences that justify every incremental dollar. For retailers, the imperative is to reinforce value in essentials while innovating in discretionary categories, ensuring relevance for both the cost-conscious and those seeking occasional indulgence.”

The consultancy offers five reasons why consumers will spend less in 2026:

  1. Persistent financial constraints. The dichotomy of essentials and discretionaries. AlixPartners’ survey data found that 65 percent of consumers cite having less money as the primary reason for reducing grocery spend, while a similar 62 percent said the same for travel, a more discretionary category.  “Macroeconomic headwinds, including stubborn inflation and ongoing cost-of-living pressures, continue to erode purchasing power. Retailers must reinforce value in essentials while innovating in discretionary categories, ensuring relevance for both the cost-conscious and those seeking occasional indulgence,” AlixPartners wrote in the study,
  2. Value perception under scrutiny. The experience equation. AlixPartners reported that “perceived value” gets questioned more by consumers as they face financial strain, particularly in categories such as eating and drinking, where 31 percent of consumers globally indicate they do not believe they are getting enough value for the cost. That’s more than double the rates seen in the similarly discretionary areas of travel (15 percent globally) and fitness and wellness (14 percent). Food and drink establishments were encouraged to take further steps to justify price points through enhanced experiences and clear value communication. AlixPartners stated, “They must invest in understanding what drives perceived value for their core segments and innovate accordingly, or risk losing share to more agile competitors.”
  3. Relentless reprioritization. Navigating the new wallet hierarchy. When budgets are under strain, consumers make “sharper, more deliberate choices” around their spending. The survey shows that 25 percent of those planning spending reductions say they will be reprioritizing away from non-food retail, 22 percent from eating and drinking out, and 21 percent from travel and holidays. AlixPartners wrote in the study, “Retailers must be agile—tracking shifting priorities in real time, adapting assortments, and personalizing offers to capture spend as it migrates. The winners will be those who anticipate these pivots and respond with targeted value propositions, rather than relying on historic category performance.”
  4. The rise of frugality. Smarter, more disciplined. While the top reasons for making fewer purchases in non-food retail were that respondents said they have less money to spend than they had before (48 percent), the second was that they recently made purchases and do not need any more (30 percent). AlixPartners said this shows consumers are “spending smarter” and could signal a shift towards more planned, less impulsive buying. AlixPartners said, “The ‘buy now, wait longer’ mindset may be taking hold, fueled by economic uncertainty and a growing focus on sustainability. For retailers, this means the traditional levers of promotion and ‘newness’ may be less effective. Instead, the focus should shift to loyalty and solutions that help consumers extract more value from what they already own, beyond the immediate period after purchase. Inventory planning and demand forecasting must be attuned to this evolving cadence of consumption.”
  5. Healthier lifestyles and the effect of weight-loss drugs. The next disruption? AlixPartners found that spending in the health and wellness category is beginning to be impacted by the spread of weight loss drugs. Among surveyed respondents in the Middle East, 16 percent cited weight-loss drugs as a reason for reducing spending on fitness and wellness in 2026, four times the rate in any other region. Globally, 4 percent of respondents indicated they use weight loss drugs as a replacement for their previous fitness routine. However, one-third (32 percent) believe they can maintain their health and well-being while spending less on health and wellness by leveraging home workouts and digital platforms. AlixPartners wrote in the study, “While the ‘GLP-1 effect’ is not yet widespread, its growing accessibility signals a potential disruption for traditional fitness, grocery, and dining sectors. Retailers must monitor this trend closely, adapting offerings to cater to at-home health solutions and anticipating shifts in demand as these drugs become more affordable and mainstream. Early movers will be best positioned to capture emerging opportunities and mitigate risks.”

Across the fitness and wellness categories, the survey found that 34 percent of global consumers plan to spend less on fitness and wellness in 2026, while 15 percent plan to spend more. Asked how they will reduce spend on fitness/wellness, the top answer was “Other,: 40 percent; followed by “I will take advantage of more free health and wellness offerings,” 30 percent; “I will reduce the number of time I go to fitness classes or enjoy wellness treatments,” 15 percent; “I will choose cheaper gyms or wellness studios,” 15 percent; “I will spend less on extras (e.g., beverages) when I am at the gym or wellness studio,” 11 percent; and “I will buy cheaper gym packages or cheaper wellness treatments,” 9 percent.

The study also found that fitness and wellness activities, spanning multiple categories, from healthy grocery shopping to gym-focused clothing, and healthy dining out to wellness-related travel, gym memberships and other fitness subscription purchases, tend to be seen as discretionary purchases and sensitive to budget cutbacks.

This year’s survey also found that consumers in Europe and the U.S. are most likely to roll back on spending on fitness and wellness, while consumers in the Middle East and China forecast an increase. Among age groups, only younger consumers under 35 globally anticipate spending more (net) in 2026 than in 2025, while lower-income groups are most likely to say they will make significant cuts in this category.

AlixPartners said, “Maintaining fitness and wellness remains a priority, but cost-conscious consumers, particularly in China and the U.S., will seek out free options and discounts before cutting activity. Promotions and discounts are critical, as shoppers prioritize affordability without sacrificing well-being. Providers can retain customers by offering flexible memberships, deals, and clear value propositions, catering to a financially constrained yet health-focused audience.”

Methodology: AlixPartners’ 2026 Global Consumer Outlook was conducted between September and October 2025. Survey respondents comprised 13,115 consumers from nine countries, including China, France, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, the U.K., and the U.S.

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