Adidas AG last week held a Home of Innovation event at its headquarters in Herzogenaurach, Germany that showcased the breadth of upcoming product launches, the benefits of a shift to decentralized management across regions, and its path to double sales in North America.
Adidas said the event, held over September 23 and 24, welcomed more than 200 investors, analysts, and members of the media with analysts saying the focus was on presenting the innovation pipeline through Autumn/Winter ’27 and the brand’s organizational setup. After an opening presentation from CEO Bjørn Gulden, attendees were invited to explore showrooms and product demonstrations and hear from regional, category and functional Adidas leaders.
“The event was strategic rather than financial in nature, as expected, with mgmt providing no new financial targets. Instead, the focus was on the building blocks underpinning Adidas’ ambition to deliver healthy growth while reaching an EBIT margin of more than 10 percent by 2028,” said Edouard Aubin, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, in a note following the event.
Aubin, who reiterated his “in-line” rating on Adidas at a €190 price target, said the event “reassured” his team of the progress Adidas is making in building a “more locally empowered organization” and in extending its product portfolio.
“Mgmt acknowledged that the current industry backdrop remains difficult, particularly in men’s lifestyle footwear, and remained cautious around the promotional environment in Europe,” said Aubin. “As such, we see the event as supportive of our existing thesis around continued market-share gains, rather than changing the near- term earnings debate. We remain particularly focused on the breadth and durability of product momentum beyond the current lifestyle cycle, the pace of improvement in North America and the path to operating leverage as the business continues to scale.”
Adidas confirmed its latest FY26 guidance for cc (constant-currency) sales growth in the range of 9 percent to 10 percent and an EBIT of €2.3 billion, as well as mid-term guidance calling for cc sales growth in the high-single digits and EBIT growth in the mid-teens on a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) basis from 2026 through 2028.
Adidas also reiterated its goal to double sales in North America to $10 billion, although it gave no timeframe.
On North America, Adidas said it faces the widest gap versus Nike in any region, although it’s gaining some share. Nike’s share was 1,290 bps (basis points) higher than Adidas in the latest second quarter compared to 1,540 bps higher in the second quarter of 2024.
Adidas told attendees the U.S. remains its biggest regional opportunity for growth, but it also “is at a larger disadvantage given it significantly lags Nike in its visibility and presence in US sports such as basketball, American football, and baseball and the US consumer does not connect as strongly with football/ soccer, Adidas’ strongest sport,” said Telsey Advisory Group’s Cristina Fernández. She reiterated her “Outperform” rating at a €200, in a note following the event.
Fernández noted that Nike benefits from its long-term sponsorships across major American sports leagues (NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB).
To counter Nike’s advantage, Adidas has targeted U.S. high schools, with 2,000 now sponsored, as well as colleges, recently replacing Nike as gear supplier to Penn State and the University of Tennessee. In the NFL, Adidas counts Kansas City Chiefs’ star quarterback Patrick Mahomes as its key ambassador, while this year the brand signed 14 NFL rookies, its most ever, including the first draft-pick Fernando Mendoza.
In basketball, where Nike has a dominant position, Adidas is focusing on “young talent with personality,” with its Anthony Edwards’ signature shoes finding success. Beyond more deals with high schools and colleges, Adidas is signing more athletes at early stages of their careers (14-16 year-old high school students).
Fernández added that in basketball, Adidas has been “streamlining its SKUs and focusing on more productive ones.” In 2027, Adidas is introducing a Hyperboost basketball shoe, bringing back Crazy Light, and launching Anthony Edward’s fourth shoe.
Organizationally, Adidas is focusing on local leadership in the U.S. to better connect the brand to U.S. culture, sports, and wholesale partners. Adidas named John Miller as managing director of North America in 2024 and Eric Smith, former GMM at Dick’s Sporting Goods and a long-time Adidas veteran prior to Dick’s, as SVP, wholesale, North America, in 2025. Adidas also opened a new creation center and office in Los Angeles, supporting basketball products and content; in addition to its North American headquarters in Oregon.
Morgan Stanley’s Aubin said Adidas at the event indicated North America “remains a significant white-space opportunity, but mgmt was realistic that rebuilding the business will take some time. Mgmt acknowledged that Adidas has not been present enough in the region and explicitly differentiated North America from its ambition to become #1 across other markets, given the size of the gap to Nike.”
Aubin said beyond focusing on “rebuilding local relevance” by investing in key U.S. sports, the brand is focusing on increasing local product creation in the U.S. He added, “Mgmt also highlighted the 2026 World Cup as a useful demonstration to US retailers of the power of the Adidas brand, while noting that the US localization model remains substantially less developed than China’s as it started later.”
A central message at the event was that Adidas is becoming a “global brand with a local mindset.” Regional teams now have much greater control over product assortment, pricing and go-to-market strategies, enabling the brand to respond more closely to local consumer trends. In China, for instance, 65 percent of products are created locally and 95 percent are manufactured locally.
RBC Capital’s Piral Dadhania, who reiterated his “Outperform” rating with a €200 target price, said in a note, “We have long agreed with the change in model that Adidas has executed in the past few years, and is delivering healthy revenue and market share growth at a high full price ratio. Local product creation in the USA (Portland, LA), Japan, China to complement the global creation engine appears to be working well.”
Adidas officials said the brand continues to gain share in China, Europe, Japan, Latin America and Emerging Markets with the help of the more localized management approach.
On product, Adidas management indicated the pipeline looks broader and less dependent on a single lifestyle trend. Running strength was particularly called out, with Adidas believing its gaining notable share as it continues to invest in franchises such as EVO SL, Adios Pro and Supernova.
Citi’s Monique Pollard, who reiterated her “Buy” rating at a €200 price target following the event, said Adidas’ running sales climbed 26 percent on a cc basis in the first half while Adidas officials said the broader global running category is expanding at a 6 percent pace. Said Pollard, “ADS sees one of its biggest near-term running opportunities as being in women’s running, given recreational race participation is 50:50 womens/mens, vs. its own split of 35:65. As such, Supernova is a key franchise, given its female-centered last.”
Training, American football and sportswear were also cited as untapped growth engines.
In global football, Adidas officials acknowledged that it faces difficult comparisons in 2027 against the men’s World Cup and is focused on its sponsorship portfolio (i.e., Real Madrid, Liverpool, and Arsenal), with more investments in African sponsorships planned ahead of the African Cup of Nations taking place in 2027. Adidas is also increasing its focus on women’s global football ahead of the 2027 World Cup in Brazil. Citi’s Pollard said in a note, “ADS sees itself as the only brand building high-performance women’s football boots. This should be helpful in NAM, given Soccer is the no.1 participation sport for girls in the US.”
In Lifestyle, Stan Smith and Court-inspired silhouettes are expected to play an important role in the next product cycle. However, management was conscious of avoiding the historical pattern of allowing one or two franchises to become too dominant before fading.
Moragn Stanley’s Aubin added that Adidas’ management “stressed the importance of patience, cultural relevance and differentiation between Samba, Spezial, Gazelle and Campus, while noting that Gazelle is likely to be the first of the current franchises to decline. BW Army is seeing a positive trajectory and is being accelerated, while Stan Smith was characterized as a longer-term opportunity.”
HSBC’s Anne-Laure Bismuth, who kept her “Buy” rating at a €210 target price, said about Adidas’ innovation on display, “In Lifestyle, there have been some concerns regarding a fading of the Terrace trends. Evidently, Terrace can continue to attract new and old customers alike. After one of its best years yet, Football looks set to continue to strive with loyal fanbases of ambassadors Trinity Rodman, Lamine Yamal, and Jude Bellingham proving sticky with customers. In Training, the two latest shoe releases – including the new Dropset (Dropset 4 and ADIZERO Dropset Pro) – have attracted a whole new cohort of Hyrox/hybrid training enthusiasts. Basketball is aiming to improve its trajectory through young talent, and Motorsports remains an untapped TAM opportunity.”
Shares of Adidas on the Frankfurt/Xetra exchange closed at €147.85. Its 52-week range is between €129.95 and €196.40.
Image courtesy of Adidas
