In a debt ratings update, Fitch Ratings said it expects Accell Group’s revenue to decline about 15 percent in 2025 and a further 9 percent in 2026 on lower volumes, partially offset by higher pricing from reduced discounting and an improved product mix. Fitch expects mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2027/28, primarily on sales volume recovery.
In a report issued in July 2025, Accell Group, the Netherlands-based parent of the Babboe, Batavus, Carqon, Ghost, Haibike, Koga, Lapierre, Raleigh, Sparta, and Winora bicycle brands, reported sales dropped 22 percent in 2024 due to extensive discounting in the bike space.
In its ratings update, Fitch said it expects Accell’s EBITDA to remain negative in 2025, although losses should narrow markedly versus the €350 million to €400 million negative EBITDA in 2023-2024. The improvement is expected to be driven by a better product mix and less aggressive discounting. Fitch said gross margins at Accell improved to around 15 percent in the first ten months of 2025 versus negative 6 percent to 8 percent in 2023-2024. Fitch said, “We expect EBITDA to reach break-even in 2026 as inventory mix improves with a larger share of active collections, and further cost-reduction measures, including the company’s second wave of cost savings targeted for completion in 2026.”
Fitch expects Accell’s free cash flow (FCF) to remain largely negative through 2025-2027, driven by weak EBITDA generation, at up to negative €30 million annually. Fitch added, “We anticipate working-capital inflows in 2025-2026 during the inventory reduction phase, while reversing to slight outflows from 2027 as inventories rebuild, assuming resumption of revenue growth from that year. Accell continues to actively manage working capital to improve payment terms and accelerate collections to support further normalization of the net working-capital requirement (2024: 56 percent of revenue).”
Fitch said Accell’s leverage is expected to remain above 20x during 2025-2027, even after debt reduction within the restricted group following the distressed-debt exchange (DDE) in February 2025. Accell secured an additional €100 million of senior secured facilities at the operating company level in June and July 2025, further increasing leverage.
Fitch said Accell’s turnaround, targeted for conclusion in 2026, carries moderate-to-high execution risk, despite some positive results in 2025. The ratings agency said, “Strategic initiatives include operational restructuring to drive efficiencies, optimization of manufacturing footprint, pricing strategy revisions, and marketing adjustments. Fitch believes the ratings will be largely dependent on the stabilization of operations, with execution risks of the turnaround increased by industry weakness and frequent senior management changes.”
In its update, Fitch affirmed Accell Group Holding B.V.’s long-term issuer default rating (IDR) at ‘CCC’. Fitch has also affirmed the senior secured debt ratings of Accell’s €274 million super senior facility at ‘B’ with a recovery rating of ‘RR1’; and its €83.4 million second-lien term loan at ‘CC’/’RR6’. Fitch downgraded Accell’s €394 million 1.5 lien facility to ‘CCC+’/’RR3’, from ‘B-‘/’RR2’, following issuance of additional super senior secured debt of €100 million.
Fitch said, “The affirmation reflects Fitch’s expectation of persistently weak liquidity, negative free cash flow (FCF) and excessive leverage over the next three years, given our assumption of limited EBITDA recovery due to a prolonged downturn in the bicycle market.”
Image courtesy Accell Group
