Several analysts raised their price targets on Academy Sports + Outdoors Inc. following the company’s release of a five-year growth plan at an Analyst Day event, with many more convinced the chain will inflect back to growth this year.
Among those raising price targets were B. Riley Securities, to $66 from $60; Wells Fargo, to $56 from $52; Barclays, to $55 from $49; Evercore ISI, to $60 from $55; and Guggenheim, to $65 from $60. Several other analysts maintained their price targets, and a few lowered their go-forward earnings estimates for Academy due to expectations of a more challenging macro environment this year, tied in part to higher gas prices.
At the event held on Tuesday, April 7, in New York City, Academy forecasted 5 percent sales growth and high-single-digit earnings growth over the next five years, with the sales boost largely driven by the opening of 125 stores through 2030 and e-commerce penetration expanding to 15 percent from 12 percent. In 2025, Academy posted its first year of annual growth in four years.
With comps projected to improve in the low single digits and operating margins expected to increase by 100 basis points to 10 percent, Academy expects to hit $9.00 in EPS by 2030.
The margin improvement is expected to be fueled by leverage from higher sales, supply chain efficiencies, contributions from retail media, and higher private-label and softlines penetration.
Academy also announced preliminary first-quarter sales, with comps expected to increase 2 percent to 3 percent, topping analysts’ consensus target of 1.5 percent.
Shares of Academy fell $1.89 to $57.18 on Tuesday and have since fallen further, closing at $55.68 on Thursday.
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B. Riley Securities’ Anna Glaessgen, who has a “Buy” rating on Academy’s shares, lifted her price target due to “greater comp inflection visibility.”
The analyst said her team left the presentation with “renewed confidence” in Academy’s long-term growth targets, citing the likely benefits of a revamped “outside-in” expansion strategy focused on exurbs (communities just outside major metropolitan areas) and rural areas. She noted that Academy made the change after finding new stores in smaller DMAs (designated market areas) where more of Academy’s core customers live were outperforming new stores in more affluent urban areas.
Glaessgen also expects a “multitude of internal initiatives to drive comp store sales growth,” including an augmented loyalty program that is already seeing members make up 45 percent of sales. She also cited Academy’s success in securing new brands and the in-stock benefits of bringing RFID detection to about half of the products by 2030, from a quarter currently.
Glaessgen said, “We continue to see a sustained positive comp as the key to unlocking a meaningful re-rating in ASO shares.”
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At Barclays Capital, Adrienne Yih raised her price target “given evidence that strategies are working.”
YIh noted that Academy provided a “credible path back to sustained growth” at the event as well as a “clear multi-year margin and earnings expansion framework.” However, she kept her “Equal Weight” rating and reduced her earnings estimates for Academy for FY26, FY27, and FY28 due to concerns about a “worsening U.S. macro” environment in the second half of 2026.
The analyst cited several positives from Academy’s presentation, including the near-term potential for sustained comp sales inflection in FY26, the benefits from store expansion, market share opportunities in core categories, and digital penetration. However, she expects these positives to be offset by macro pressures, particularly the impact of higher gas prices on Academy’s lower-income household consumer, potential heightened promotional activity across retail, and a still-negative sales-to-inventory spread.
Yih wrote, “Overall, ASO’s model is becoming increasingly differentiated versus sporting goods peers, supported by structurally higher margins, disciplined unit growth in under-penetrated markets, and growing contribution from digital, private label, and retail media. However, we look for greater macro clarity and a positive sales-to-inventory inflection before turning more constructive.”
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John Heinbocke at Guggenheim Securities reiterated his “Buy” rating while raising his price target, citing greater confidence in Academy’s capacity to drive top-line growth.
Heinbocke suspects the Academy should benefit from shifting its expansion focus from new store openings to less-dense areas on the outskirts of major cities and in rural areas, where the chain will face reduced competition and lower costs. He likened the strategy to Dollar General’s playbook. Heinbocke wrote, “Management made a solid case for whitespace growth potential, especially in the existing geography where the ASO go-to-market is relatively well-known.”
Beyond the benefit of new stores moving into comp-store measurement, Heinbocke said sales growth should benefit from enhanced loyalty program benefits and improved digital capabilities.
The analyst was more skeptical of Academy’s ability to meet its targets for margin inflation, given potential wage inflation, retail media vendor adoption, and the strength of soft-line sales, which have been flat in recent years.
Heinbocke concluded in his valuation, “Now armed with a more realistic, though still slightly ambitious secular algo, to complement a fortress balance sheet and modest valuation, we regard the shares’ risk-reward as attractive.”
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Citi Research’s Paul Lejuez reiterated his “Neutral” rating on Academy at a price target of $50. He wrote in a note that Academy’s broader plan to open 125 stores over five years, expand e-commerce, and merge its private-label credit card with its loyalty program “is reasonable,” and he suspects the long-term guidance provided by Academy was in line with what investors expected.
He highlighted that Academy is bringing in new brands, citing Chicknlegs running apparel and Brooks’ apparel assortments, to drive sales, but felt some investors had expected Academy to announce it was adding Hoka to the mix. Lejuez said, “We expect they will eventually have a test with Hoka with very limited distribution.”
He also noted that Academy’s team indicated that higher gas prices would pressure consumer spending. Lejuez’s biggest concern, however, is that Academy’s five-year plan assumes low single-digit growth. He expects flat growth. Lejuez wrote, “Although comps are running positive currently, historically comps (outside of the pandemic surge) have rarely been positive.”
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At Telsey Advisory Group, Cristina Fernández maintained her “Outperform” rating at a $65 price target.
Fernández expressed confidence that Academy’s “refined real estate strategy,” merchandise initiatives, and planned tech investments to drive e-commerce will enable the chain to accelerate sales growth and reach its target 5 percent annual sales growth over the next five years, including the comp in the low-single-digit range.
She noted that although the 5 percent average growth target was below the FactSet consensus expectations calling for 5.5 percent growth in 2027 and 6.2 percent in 2028, it “seems prudent to us given recent results and a more measured new store opening cadence of 25 a year.”
Fernández was also comfortable with Academy’s margin targets. She noted that while higher gas prices in the near term may be a headwind, she was encouraged that Academy’s first-quarter sales are running above expectations, and Academy’s officials also noted that the ammo business had seen an acceleration tied to anxieties over the Iran war.
Fernández concluded, “All in, Academy is making progress on merchandising initiatives, offsetting tariffs, and controlling promotions. The company’s comp declines have narrowed the last two quarters, although it is not yet generating a sustainable positive comp, which we and investors are looking for, and we believe could happen in 2026. As Academy’s comp trends stabilize, we expect Academy’s EPS growth to accelerate and its valuation to expand.”
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At Truist Securities, Joseph Civello raised his first-quarter comp estimate due to Academy’s guidance update but lowered his EPS targets for FY26 and FY27 “largely due to what we view as incremental macro pressure.”
He also kept his “Hold” rating at a $52 price target, and suspects investors will need further proof that sales are inflecting back to growth before becoming more bullish on the stock.
Civello wrote in a note, “While mgmt. has executed well on key initiatives, we expect shares to remain rangebound until ASO shows they can drive positive comps consistently. In our view, this remains challenging in a competitive marketplace and tough macro with volatile oil prices.”
Image courtesy Academy Sports
