Reports from Adobe, Mastercard SpendingPulse, RetailNext, Sensormatic, and Shopify found that Black Friday sales aligned with, or exceeded, expectations, as strength in online sales offset continued softness in in-store traffic on the major U.S. holiday shopping day.

Black Friday is no longer the sales event of the year that once created midnight mall crowds and doorbuster mayhem, with numerous deals steadily arriving over October and November. Consumers were also found to be selective in their pursuit of bargains; however, the data showed that consumer spending remained resilient amid concerns over tariffs, inflation and uncertainty in the U.S. economy.

“Despite questions about its relevance due to the prolonged, month-long promotional season, Black Friday remains the most significant shopping day of the holiday season,” said Chip West, retail and consumer behavior expert at RR Donnelley, a communications company, according to a report in the New York Times.

Overall, the National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that U.S. consumers will spend over $1 trillion during the 2025 holiday season from November to December, for the first time, but noted that the rate of growth has slowed, with an anticipated increase of 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent year-over-year (y/y), compared to 4.3 percent for the same period in 2024.

Adobe Analytics Sees Black Friday Sales Rise 9.1 Percent
Adobe Analytics, which tracks e-commerce, said U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday this year, a 9.1 percent increase from 2024. Online traffic, particularly between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. local time nationwide, was heavy, with $12.5 million passing through shopping carts every minute. Additionally, 55.2 percent of online sales came from mobile devices (vs. desktops), totaling $6.5 billion, up 10.2 percent y/y.

Adobe reported that mobile is now the dominant form of shopping during the holiday season, which tends to drive more impulse purchases and boost online growth.

Adobe said the record spending during the period shows that “Black Friday has cemented its role as a major e-commerce moment, as more shoppers opt to stay home and take advantage of deals. For context: The final tally is $2.8 billion more than the 2020 holiday shopping season ($9 billion on Black Friday 2020, up 21.6 percent YoY), when the COVID-19 pandemic drove a substantial step change in Black Friday e-commerce.”

Adobe observed large Black Friday upticks in purchases of electronics, video game consoles, toys, and appliances. Online sales rose by 1,900 percent in video game consoles (vs. average spending levels in October 2025), along with televisions (up 1,740 percent), headphones/speakers (up 1,700 percent), refrigerators/freezers (up 1,630 percent), smartwatches (up 1,500 percent), small kitchen appliances (up 1,300 percent), computers (up 1,020 percent), and kid’s toys (up 910 percent). Other categories with strong growth included vacuum cleaners (up 1,450 percent), power tools (up 1,420 percent), bicycles (up 980 percent), and holiday decor (up 890 percent).

Other insights from this year’s Black Friday include:

  • AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by consumers clicking on a link) increased by 805 percent YoY, as they embraced generative AI chat services/browsers to find deals and research products. These AI tools were most used in categories such as video games, appliances, electronics, toys, personal care products, and baby/toddler products. Adobe also observed that consumers who landed on a U.S. retail site via an AI service were 38 percent more likely to convert (i.e., visits that became sales) than those from non-AI traffic sources.
  • Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) drove $747.5 million in online spending, up 8.9 percent YoY. This flexible payment service was also used predominantly on mobile devices, driving an 80.7 percent share (vs. desktop) on the shopping day. In an Adobe survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers, respondents said they were most likely to use BNPL for electronics, apparel, toys, and furniture purchases. On Cyber Monday, BNPL is expected to cross the $1 billion milestone (forecast: $1.04 billion, up 5 percent YoY).
  • Social media was a standout, with its share of online revenue (purchases attributed to social traffic) at 3.4 percent and rising 54.5 percent YoY on Black Friday (up from 2.2 percent share and flat YoY growth in 2024). In affiliates and partners, which include social media influencers, growth was also notable (21.9 percent share of revenue and 11.7 percent YoY growth), up from 19.6 percent share and 5.4 percent YoY growth last year. While major channels such as paid search and email remain reliable drivers of traffic and sales online, consumers are increasingly turning to social media to discover and learn about new product.

Adobe forecasts that consumers spent $5.5 billion on Saturday, November 29 (up 3.8 percent YoY) and $5.9 billion on Sunday, November 30 (up 5.4 percent YoY) this year. Cyber Monday, December 1, is set to be the biggest online shopping day of the season and year, driving $14.2 billion in sales (up 6.3 percent YoY). Cyber Week (the 5-day selling period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive 17.2 percent of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion (up 6.3 percent YoY).

“Cyber Week is off to a strong start, with online spending on Thanksgiving and Black Friday both coming in above Adobe’s initial forecasts,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. “This was driven in large part by competitive deals across categories like electronics, toys, and apparel. Discounts are set to remain elevated through Cyber Monday, which we expect will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season and year.”

Mastercard SpendingPulse Sees 4.1 Percent Black Friday Gain
Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks in-person and online spending, reported that overall Black Friday sales, excluding automotive, rose 4.1 percent from the same period last year, increasing from a 3.4 percent gain delivered in 2024’s Black Friday.

Among channels, e-commerce sales ex-autos jumped 10.4 percent “as shoppers increasingly value speed and convenience,” according to Mastercard. In-store sales grew more modestly, up 1.7 percent.

Among categories, apparel was a standout performer, up 5.7 percent (online +6.1 percent, in-store +5.4 percent) as “chilly temperatures and seasonal deals encouraged spending on new fashions.” Jewelry rose 2.75 percent (online +4.2 percent).

Restaurant spending grew 4.5 percent. Mastercard said, “Dining out has become part of the holiday ritual to celebrate the season and underscores consumers’ continued desire for experiences.”

Regions outperforming included New England, the Midwest and Southeast. Overall sales in New England and the Midwest were boosted by apparel, as spending on cold-weather gear was likely supported by the drop in temperatures. The Southeast has shown persistent strength this year.

Overall, Mastercard said this year’s Black Friday “tells a story of comfort, connection, and savvy shopping,” with consumers focusing on gatherings with friends and family and leaning into value-driven choices and convenience.

Michelle Meyer, chief economist at the Mastercard Economics Institute, stated, “Consumers are showing incredible savviness this season. They’re navigating an uncertain environment by shopping early, leveraging promotions, and investing in wish-list items.”

RetailNext: In-Store Traffic Declines 3.6 Percent on Black Friday
Initial data from RetailNext, which measures real-time foot traffic in physical stores, found that U.S. Black Friday traffic fell 3.6 percent compared to 2024. Still, the firm noted that it was “meaningfully better” than a sharper 6.2 percent decline seen on days leading up to Thanksgiving (Sunday through Wednesday, 11/23–11/26).

“Black Friday 2025 didn’t kill the holiday; it changed how shoppers approached it,” said Joe Shasteen, Global Head of Advanced Analytics at RetailNext. “Foot traffic was down 3.6 percent on Friday and 8.6 percent on Saturday, but that wasn’t disinterest, it was intention. Shoppers showed they’re done with the impulse-driven, one-day frenzy. Prices, tariffs, and tighter budgets pushed people to shop with discipline, not adrenaline, and they responded by turning Black Friday into a value calculation.”

Despite the declines, Black Friday again delivered the highest in-store traffic of any day this year, reaffirming its role as the anchor of the holiday shopping season. Shasteen said the weekend’s results show shoppers remain cautious and selective in their pursuit of quality deals.

“The weekend’s performance was shaped more by real-world factors than waning interest,” added Shasteen. “Consumers are still willing to shop; they’re just demanding proof it’s worth leaving the house. Retailers who treated November as a month-long build, rather than a single-day spectacle, saw the strongest in-store performance.”

Among categories, apparel retail traffic was nearly flat on Black Friday specifically (-0.7 percent) and down -2.3 percent over the weekend, outperforming more discretionary sectors like home (-9.8 percent weekend average), footwear (-6.0 percent weekend average), and health and beauty (-4.7 percent weekend average) as “households prioritized essentials and delayed big-ticket or nice-to-have purchases,” according to RetailNext.

Sensormatic Reports In-Store Black Friday Traffic Dip
Sensormatic Solutions, which also tracks store traffic, found that in-store retail visits in the U.S. dipped 2.1 percent on Black Friday, though traffic was in line with expectations and with trends already seen this year.  Year-to-date traffic is down 2.2 percent.

Despite the y/y dip, traffic surged in the immediate lead-up to the holiday, according to Sensormatic’s ShopperTrak Analytics platform, which captures store visits. During the week of Black Friday (November 23-28), consumer visits rose 56.7 percent compared to the prior week (November 16-21). On Black Friday (November 28), traffic exceeded the previous Friday (November 21) by 248.9 percent.

“Traffic has been steadily picking up throughout the second half of 2025, kicking off during the back-to-school season, and this week’s strong showing hints this trend is likely to continue throughout the rest of the holiday season,” said Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic. “Black Friday is still expected to be the busiest shopping day of the year as consumers prioritize leveraging peak discount days to purchase big-ticket items on their lists.”

ShopperTrak Analytics data also showed that the early afternoon remains the most popular time for Black Friday browsing. As in years past, in-store traffic peaked between 2:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m., with 3 p.m. marking the busiest hour for retailers.

Sensormatic said that while Black Friday is forecasted to be the busiest day of the 2025 holiday shopping season, peak selling days over the rest of the holiday season are expected to fall in the final few days leading up to Christmas. With this year’s holiday falling on a Thursday, December 25, for the first time in over a decade, retailers may see a more sustained high-traffic period in the week preceding Christmas day.

“This weekend truly marks the kickoff to a successful holiday season for retailers, and beyond that, a successful 2026 as well,” continued Gustafson. “According to ShopperTrak Analytics, in 2024, 77 percent of the retailers that outperformed in shopper traffic during the holiday season continued to outperform into the first half of 2025. The momentum and loyalty gained by providing great shopping experiences this weekend can help retailers into the new year.”

Shopify Merchants Deliver 25 Percent Black Friday Growth
Shopify merchants worldwide achieved $6.2 billion in total sales on Black Friday, up 25 percent from last year (22 percent on a constant-currency basis), according to a LinkedIn post from Harley Finkelstein, the shopping platform’s president.

Consumer spending surged at 12:01 PM EST, reaching $5.1 million per minute. The average cart price at checkout was $117.93. The top product categories by order volume were cosmetics, clothing (tops, activewear), fitness, and nutrition.

The top-trending products across the Shopify platform were:

  • ALO (Accolate Crew Neck Pullover)
  • Béis (The Weekender)
  • Brooklinen (Super Plush Robe)
  • Cozy Earth (Bamboo Sheet Set)
  • Caraway Home (Cookware Set)
  • Goose Creek Candle (Christmas Tree 3-Wick Candle)
  • ILIA Beauty (Super Serum Skin Tint)
  • Merit Beauty (Flush Balm)