E-Bike Demand Forecast to Grow to 47 Million Units by 2018

The research was released the day after Germany’s bicycle industry trade association reported that e-bike sales in that country reached 310,000 units in 2011, up 55 percent from 2010. Those sales helped propel total bike sales in Germany to €2 billion, up 8.8 percent.

Pike Research's forecast that the global e-bicycle market will generate $6.9 billion in worldwide revenue in 2012, growing to $11.9 billion in 2018. By 2018, Pike Research anticipates China will account for 42 million e-bikes, or it 89 percent of the total world market..

Under a more aggressive forecast scenario, worldwide e-bicycle sales could reach 51 million units and $13.2 billion revenue in 2018, the clean tech market intelligence firm forecasts.

“E-bicycle manufacturers and importers in North America and Latin America continue to struggle with a weak distribution network and modest demand,” says senior analyst Dave Hurst. “As a result, the e-bicycle market is experiencing an accelerated rate of acquisitions and business failures. Nevertheless, sales are expected to grow rapidly, with a CAGR of nearly 22 percent in North America from 2012 to 2018.”

The vast majority of the e-bicycles sold in China, the world’s largest market, utilize sealed lead acid (SLA) batteries. While this has resulted in extremely low-cost e-bicycles in China, it has also led to a number of challenges including e-bicycle traffic congestion, lead contamination, and manufacturers effectively ignoring laws relating to e-bicycles speed and weight limits. Pike Research anticipates that the global penetration of lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries will grow from 6 percent in 2012 to 12 percent in 2018. Cost pressures from Asia Pacific will keep manufacturers interested in SLA batteries through this decade, but once manufacturing efficiencies have driven down the costs of Li-ion, we will start to see the decline of SLA as the battery of choice in e-bicycles.