Deloitte, the largest global professional services network, forecasts that retail sales during the Holiday selling period are likely to increase between 2.9 percent and 3.4 percent in 2025, according to the firm’s annual holiday retail forecast. Deloitte said Holiday sales grew by 4.2 percent for the same period in 2024, citing U.S. Census Bureau data.
Overall, Deloitte’s retail and consumer products practice projects holiday sales will total $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion during the November to January timeframe.
E-commerce is projected to grow steadily by 7 percent to 9 percent year-over-year during the 2025/26 holiday season, supporting overall retail sales growth during this period. Deloitte projects e-commerce sales to reach $305.0 billion to $310.7 billion this season.
“We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1 percent to 5.4 percent this holiday season,” said Akrur Barua, an economist at Deloitte Insights. “Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales. Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending.”
Barua noted that while high inflation will likely limit the growth in retail sales volume, it will still serve as a tailwind for overall dollar spending during the holiday season.
“We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty,” added Natalie Martini, vice chair, Deloitte, and U.S. retail and consumer products leader. “Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power. Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses.”
