Back-to-school spending, adjusted for inflation, is expected to decline 6 percent year-over-year as consumers’ concerns about the economy heightens, according to Deloitte’s annual Back-to-School Survey.  The survey forecasts families are expecting ⁠to prioritize necessities, such as clothing, while cutting back on technology purchases. 

Based on the survey of respondents’ intentions, back-to-school spending is expected to remain flat at $30.4 billion this year. Parents plan to spend $557 per student in grades K-12, down just $13 year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation, families plan to spend 6 percent less year-over-year and 27 percent less than to a recent peak in 2021.

 The survey found more than half of surveyed consumers are concerned about the economy: 57 percent of respondents expect the economy to worsen in the next six months, the highest level reported in the survey since 2020, and 24 percent of respondents are concerned about making upcoming payments.

While lower-income (+10 percent YoY) and middle-income (+12 percent YoY) parents expect to spend more due to higher prices, upper-middle-income parents (-9 percent YoY) and higher-income parents (-20 percent YoY) say they’ll reduce their spending given financial concerns. Reasons vary:

  • 80 percent of lower-income families (those making $50K per year or less) and 71 percent of middle-income families (those making $50K to 99K annually) cited higher prices as the reason they’ll spend more.
  • 67 percent of upper-middle-income families (those making $100-199K) plan to spend less because they are worried about the economy.
  • 63 percent of higher-income families (those making $200K or more) report having less money to spend.
  • Those surveyed plan to spend 22 percent more on clothing and accessories, an average of $323 per child, but it is also the top category people would cut if budgets get too tight. Spending on technology is expected to decline 16 percent to an average of $417 per child as parents defer personal device upgrades for their children. To make room in their budgets for back-to-school items, half of those surveyed (50 percent) plan to cut back on other expenses, such as dining out and entertainment.

“While many parents are willing to do all they can to help set their children up for success, financial concerns are leading them to sharpen their budgets. Cautious spending behavior exists across income groups, but value-seekers demonstrate that it’s not always about the cost — some consumers are willing to spend if they find value in the purchase,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair and U.S. Retail and Consumer Products sector leader, Deloitte, in a statement. “At the same time, there’s often a sense of nostalgia about back-to-school that can impact how and when parents spend. Retailers who lean into these dynamics may be more likely to see success throughout the season.”

BTS Buys Delayed As Parents Seek Out Best Deals
Deloitte’s survey showed that as consumers aim to get more out of every dollar, with 68 percent planning to shop for back-to-school items during summer promotional events. Many are also delaying purchases to later in the season and engaging in value-seeking behaviors:

  • Families are pushing back-to-school purchases closer to the start of school: 48 percent of planned spending is expected to occur by the end of July, down from 61 percent in 2025. An additional 31 percent of planned back-to-school spending is expected to take place in early August, with average spend that month rising to $173 per child, up from $137 in 2025.
  • About one-third (31 percent) of K-12 parents qualify as hyper value-seekers, meaning they adopt four or more cost-saving behaviors. However, despite their deal-seeking mindset, these consumers are expected to spend 14 percent more than other shoppers, underscoring that value-seeking can be more about being selective than cutting back.
  • K-12 parents surveyed showcase value-seeking behavior in a variety of ways:
    • Seventy-one percent say they will switch brands if the preferred brand is too expensive
    • Sixty percent plan to shop at more affordable retailers
    • Fifty-one percent expect to shop for private labels instead of name brands
    • One-quarter (25 percent) plan to use cashback websites
  • Planned spending is consistently higher among parents across all income groups who use a broader set of digital tools in their shopping journey. While non-tech users (20 percent) plan to spend $381 on average, those planning to use search (30 percent) plan to spend $494 on average.
  • Respondents who use additional tech tools plan to spend more: Search and social media users (21 percent) plan to spend an average of $531; those who use search, social media, and GenAI (29 percent) are expected to have the highest spend at $737.
  • Most back-to-school purchases are expected to take place in-store rather than online, but online shoppers plan to spend more — an average of $614 compared to $521 for mostly in-store shoppers.
  • Mass merchant retailers continue to be the top destination for back-to-school purchases, with 80 percent of parents planning to shop there. Online retailers, warehouse membership clubs, and department stores are other top destinations.
  • Parents plan to shop at four retail formats on average, one less than last year. According to survey respondents, the main reason for spending the most at a retailer remains value for the money.

Brian McCarthy, principal, retail strategy leader, Deloitte Consulting LLP, said, “We see parents approach back-to-school shopping with intent. They tend to be more thoughtful about their spending and value-seeking strategies to help maximize their wallets. Additionally, those who actively use multiple digital tools to research products tend to be more engaged shoppers overall. GenAI users, for example, may spend more time comparing products and filling their carts with more purchases, which can create a further benefit for retailers to lean into the technology.”

Other key takeaways from the survey:

  • Children’s preferences shape spending decisions, although slightly less often than last year. 59 percent of parents surveyed said their children often entice them to spend more, compared to 62 percent who said the same in 2025. In addition, 45 percent said their child has a specific must-have item for back-to-school, and 57 percent said their child influenced them to splurge on that item.
  • Half (49 percent) of parents surveyed worry that their child relies on AI too much  (in and out of the classroom) while only 33 percent said their school has AI guidelines. Signaling gaps in communication and policy, 38 percent of those surveyed do not know if their child’s school has AI guidelines. Signaling a potential opportunity for ed-tech and retailers, 13 percent of parents plan to pay for AI tutoring or camps.

Deloitte’s “Back-to-School” survey was conducted online using an independent research panel between May 22-29, 2026, and surveyed 1,207 parents with at least one child attending school in grades K-12 this fall.

Image courtesy Kids Foot Locker