The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dipped slightly in August, falling 1.3 points to 97.4. The latest reading maintains the Index level comparable to that of the past three months, indicating a recent stabilization in consumer confidence, albeit at a subdued level.
The decline erased some gains from the previous month and resumed the downward trend that had been in place at the outset of 2025.
The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ views on current business and labor market conditions, decreased 1.6 points to 131.2. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 1.2 points to 74.8. Historically, an Expectations Index below 80 signals a recession within the following year.
“Consumer confidence dipped slightly in August but remained at a level similar to those of the past three months,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at The Conference Board. “The present situation and the expectation components both weakened. Notably, consumers’ appraisal of current job availability declined for the eighth consecutive month, but stronger views of current business conditions mitigated the retreat in the Present Situation Index. Meanwhile, pessimism about future job availability inched up and optimism about future income faded slightly. However, these were partly offset by stronger expectations for future business conditions.”
Among demographic groups, confidence declined for consumers under 35, stayed stable for those aged 35 to 55, and rose for those over 55. Confidence among income groups was mixed, with no clear pattern. By partisan affiliation, confidence weakened for both Republicans and Democrats in August but changed little for Independents.
Guichard added: “Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to tariffs increased somewhat and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Meanwhile, references to high prices and inflation, including food and groceries, rose again in August. Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations picked up after three consecutive months of easing and reached 6.2 percent in August—up from 5.7 percent in July but still below the April peak of 7.0 percent.”
Among the write-in responses, there was also a rise in mentions of jobs and employment, even though these remained relatively low on the list of themes consumers are focused on. Most negative comments on the labor market referred to the current situation, while positive comments conveyed hopes that things would get better.
In August, consumers’ outlook on stock prices deteriorated slightly, with 47.4 percent of consumers expecting stock prices to increase over the next 12 months, down from 48.9 percent in July. Conversely, 30.3 percent of consumers expected stock prices to decrease over the next 12 months, up from 28.1 percent in July. The share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise increased to 54.0 percent from 53.1 percent in July and fewer consumers expected interest rates to fall (20.9 percent vs 21.4 percent in July).
Consumers’ views of their Family’s Current and Future Financial Situation both improved in August. The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months rose in August to the highest level since the April peak. (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index).
Purchasing plans for cars increased in August, with buying intentions for both new and used cars rising. Meanwhile, purchasing plans for homes remained stable after July’s decline. Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items were slightly down overall, but there was considerable variation from one item to the next. The strongest increases in buying intentions were for washers and dryers, while the largest declines were in TVs and tablets.
Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services have improved. The increases were concentrated in a few, mostly non-discretionary categories, such as financial services and car and home maintenance. Discretionary spending plans, including those on dining out and outdoor and indoor entertainment, were down. Vacation intentions fell for a second straight month. Intentions to travel abroad and within the U.S. both declined.
