U.S. consumer confidence fell in September to a five-month low, driven by growing concerns about job prospects and the broader economy.

The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence decreased 3.6 points to 94.2 from 97.8 in August, as cited in the data released by the global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization on Tuesday, September 30.

The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 96.

The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions, fell by 7.0 points to 125.4, marking its largest decline in a year. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025.

The cutoff date for preliminary results was September 21, 2025.

“Consumer confidence weakened in September, declining to the lowest level since April 2025,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multi-year low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings. Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions, but optimism about future income increased, mitigating the overall decline in the Expectations Index.”

Among consumers’ write-in responses, there was a notable increase in mentions of jobs and employment, reaching a level not seen since August 2024. The comments were mostly negative, especially when referring to the present-day situation. However, there were a few positive comments, which mostly conveyed hope that things would improve.

Consumers’ write-in responses also showed that references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy, noted Guichard.

“References to tariffs declined this month but remained elevated and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices,” Guichard said. Nonetheless, consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched down to 5.8 percent in September from 6.1 percent in August. This is still notably above 5.0 percent, the level at the end of 2024.”

Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. The Expectations Index decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4.

Consumers’ views of their family’s current and future financial situation both weakened in September.

“Notably, consumers’ views of their current financial situation recorded the largest one-month drop since we started to collect this data in July 2022,” Guichard said.

The share of consumers thinking that a recession is very likely over the next 12 months rose slightly in September, to the highest level since May. Additionally, more consumers believe that the economy is already in recession.

Purchasing Plans
Purchasing plans for cars weakened in September, with buying intentions for used and new cars declining. However, purchasing plans for homes jumped to a four-month high.

Consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items remained largely unchanged overall, with variations across different types of appliances. Intentions to purchase TVs and dryers increased the most in September, while those for refrigerators declined the most.

Electronics purchase intentions were mostly up, with smartphones leading the rise. Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services ahead deteriorated. Almost all types of services registered a decline in buying intentions, especially travel-related services. Vacation intentions fell again to the lowest level since April, with intentions to travel abroad driving the decline.

Other insights from the Conference Board’s September report are below.

Present Situation
Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions deteriorated in September.

  • 19.5 percent of consumers said business conditions were “good,” down from 21.8 percent in August.
  • 15.4 percent said business conditions were “bad,” up from 14.6 percent.

Consumers’ views of the labor market cooled further in September.

  • 26.9 percent of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 30.2 percent in August.
  • 19.1 percent of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” unchanged from last month.

Expectations Six Months Hence  
Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future business conditions in September.

  • 18.7 percent of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 20.2 percent in August.
  • 22.3 percent expected business conditions to worsen, also down from 23.5 percent.

Consumers were more worried about the labor market outlook in September.

  • 16.1 percent of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 17.9 percent in August.
  • 25.6 percent anticipated fewer jobs, down slightly from 25.9 percent.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board, powered by Toluna.

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