The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that November retail sales saw strong year-over-year growth, with the first half of the Holiday shopping season delivering results on track to meet the trade association’s forecast for the full season, according to data compiled in the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report, powered by Affinity Solutions.

“Retail sales showed healthy year-over-year gains in November while month-over-month data was largely flat,” explained NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in the report’s release to the market on Friday, December 12. “Shoppers looking for online deals may have held back a bit until Cyber Monday, which landed in December due to a late Thanksgiving, likely shifting some spending. Consumers are focusing on value and spending carefully during the holiday period, and retailers are offering products at competitive prices to fit every budget. We remain confident in our 2025 holiday forecast as well as our retail sales projections for the full year.”

Total Retail Sales, excluding auto dealers and gas stations, were said to be up 0.12 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month (m/m), and up 4.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year (y/y) in November, according to the latest Retail Monitor. That compared with an increase of 0.6 percent m/m and an increase of 5.0 percent y/y in October.

The Retail Monitor calculation of Core Retail Sales (excluding restaurants, in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was down a very slight 0.4 percent m/m in November but up 4.7 percent y/y. That compared with an increase of 0.60 percent m/m and an increase of 4.9 percent y/y in October and a 5.7 percent y/y in September.

Total Sales were up 5.1 percent y/y for the first 11 months of the year, a flat trend versus the 10-month trend, and Core Retail Sales were up 5.2 percent, down slightly from the 5.3 percent increase reported through October.

The October results come as NRF forecasts that 2025 holiday sales will increase between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent compared to 2024, reaching just over $1 trillion.

The NRF has also forecast that retail sales for the entire year will increase between 2.7 percent and 3.7 percent over 2024 to as much as $5.5 trillion.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reports “actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, which tabulates its report results without requiring monthly or annual revisions. The Retail Monitor leverages Affinity Solutions’ data from over 140 million credit and debit cards, with nearly nine billion transactions totaling more than $500 billion in annual spending.”

NRF reported that November retail sales were up in all but one of the nine categories, year-over-year, again led by Digital Products, Clothing, Footwear and Accessories Stores, and Sporting Goods Stores. Additionally, sales were down in six categories on a month-over-month basis.

Specifics from key sectors include:

The sector that includes Sporting Goods stores was up 8.7 percent y/y in November 2025 after posting 8.8 percent y/y growth in October.

Growth in the Clothing and Accessories stores sector, which includes Footwear stores, continued to build on its solid gains in through the fiscal third quarter, increasing 8.2 percent in November 2025, following a 7.9 percent y/y increase in October.

Year-Over-Year Change in Retail Sales, Unadjusted

To download the full CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Report for November 2025, go here.

Data and table courtesy CNBC, NRF and Affinity Solutions