The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that October retail sales rebounded versus the slowdown on a month-over-month (m/m) basis in September after a busy summer, but year-over-year (y/y) sales increases remain strong as retailers prepare for the Holiday selling season, according to data compiled in the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report.

Retail sales bounced back in October, showing both monthly and year-over-year gains as the holiday shopping season approached, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions.

“Retail sales grew in October as consumers geared up for the holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Recent economic data has been mixed, yet consumer spending remains solid — supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, historically low unemployment, and wealth effects from strong stock market valuations. These factors point to continued momentum heading into the holidays as consumers focus on family, friends and finding value to make their budgets go further.”

Total Retail Sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, were up 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month (m/m), and up 5.0 percent unadjusted year-over-year (y/y) in October, according to the latest Retail Monitor. That compared with a decrease of 0.66 percent m/m and an increase of 5.4 percent y/y in September.

The Retail Monitor calculation of Core Retail Sales (excluding restaurants, in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was also up 0.6 percent m/m in October and up 4.9 percent y/y. That compared with a decrease of 0.49 percent m/m and an increase of 5.7 percent y/y in September.

Total Sales were up 5.1 percent y/y for the first 10 months of the year, and Core Retail Sales were up 5.3 percent.

The October results come as NRF forecasts that 2025 holiday sales will increase between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent compared to 2024, reaching just over $1 trillion.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reports “actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, which tabulates its report results without requiring monthly or annual revisions. The Retail Monitor leverages Affinity Solutions’ data from over 140 million credit and debit cards, with nearly nine billion transactions totaling more than $500 billion in annual spending.”

NRF reported that October sales were up in all but two of the nine categories on a yearly basis, led by Digital Products, Clothing, Footwear and Accessories Stores, and Sporting Goods Stores. Additionally, sales were up in all but two categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

The sector that includes Sporting Goods stores was up 8.8 percent y/y in August 2025 after posting 9.0 percent y/y growth in August and 9.9 percent year-over-year growth in July.

Growth in the Clothing and Accessories stores sector, which includes Footwear stores, continued to build on its solid gains in July and August, rising 7.4 percent in September 2025, following a 8.3 percent year-over-year increase in August. The Building and Garden Supply Stores sector was again the only sector to decline year-over-year.

Year-Over-Year Change in Retail Sales, Unadjusted

To download the full CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Report for October 2025, go here.

Image courtesy Paragon Sports, Data and table courtesy CNBC, NRF and Affinity Solutions