The retail marketplace continued its solid performance throughout the 2025 holiday selling season, with year-over-year sales growth at the high end of the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) forecast for the two-month period from November 1 through December 31, 2025.
According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, 2025 U.S. holiday sales for the two-month period grew 4.1 percent year-over-year. That compares with the NRF’s forecast that the year’s holiday sales would increase between 3.7 percent and 4.2 percent versus the comparative holiday period in 2024 and generate just over $1 trillion in sales revenue.
“December Retail Monitor data saw a sharp surge in growth as consumers continued prioritizing holiday spending on family and friends,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Continued economic momentum helped land 2025 holiday sales near the top of NRF’s forecast, reaffirming that consumers remain on solid footing.”
The NRF reported last month that November retail sales saw “healthy year-over-year gains,” with the first half of the holiday shopping season delivering results that put the market on track to meet the trade association’s forecast for the full season.
The December CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Report indicates that Total Retail Sales, excluding autos and gas, were up 1.3 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month (m/m) and rose 3.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year (y/y) in December, less than half the growth percentage in December 2024 when Total Retail Sales increased 7.2 percent y/y.
Last year, the NRF reported that its December numbers showed the Sunday after Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday both fell in December rather than November because of the later-than-usual Thanksgiving in 2024, “likely giving a meaningful boost to December.”
The December trend follows increases of 0.12 percent m/m and 4.5 percent y/y in November 2025, compared to increases of 0.15 percent m/m and 2.4 percent y/y in November 2024 that would appear to underscore that argument.
The December CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Report calculation of Core Retail Sales, excluding restaurants in addition to auto dealers and gas stations, was up 2.2 percent m/m for the month and up 8.4 percent y/y. That compared with a decrease of 0.19 percent m/m and an increase of 1.4 percent y/y in November.
The NRF said the December numbers reflect that the Sunday after Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday both fell in December rather than November because of the later-than-usual Thanksgiving in 2024, “likely giving a meaningful boost to December.”
Total Retail Sales, excluding auto dealers and gas stations, were said to be up 0.12 percent seasonally adjusted month-over-month (m/m), and up 4.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year (y/y) in November, according to the latest Retail Monitor. That compared with an increase of 0.6 percent m/m and an increase of 5.0 percent y/y in October.
The Retail Monitor calculation of Core Retail Sales, excluding restaurants, in addition to auto dealers and gas stations, was up 1.6 percent m/m versus November 2025 but up 3.6 percent y/y versus December 2024. That compared with an increase of 4.7 percent y/y in November 2025 and a 4.9 percent y/y in October.
Total Sales were up 5.1 percent y/y for the first 11 months of the year, a flat trend versus the 10-month trend, and Core Retail Sales were up 5.2 percent, down slightly from the 5.3 percent increase reported through October.
December’s results brought the Total Retail Sales trend, as calculated by the Retail Monitor, to an increase of 4.9 percent over 2024 and Core Retail sales to an increase of 5.1 percent y/y. The full-year results easily beat the NRF forecast that Total Retail Sales for 2025 would increase between 2.7 percent and 3.7 percent over 2024, to as much as $5.5 trillion.
The NRF reported that December retail sales were up in all but three of the nine categories, year-over-year, led by Clothing, Footwear and Accessories stores (+6.1 percent), followed by Miscellaneous Retailers (+6.0 percent) and the sector that includes Sporting Goods Stores (+5.2 percent). Sales were only down in one sector on a month-over-month basis.
Specifics from key sectors include:
The sector that includes Sporting Goods stores was up year-over-year in December 2025, but the 5.2 percent increase fell far short of the 8.7 percent y/y increase in November 2025 and 8.8 percent y/y growth in October 2025.
Growth in the Clothing and Accessories stores sector, which includes Footwear stores, also fell short of the strong gains in prior months this past year. The 6.1 percent increase in December was up against an 8.2 percent increase in November 2025 and a 7.9 percent y/y increase in October 2025.
Year-Over-Year Change in Retail Sales, Unadjusted
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reports “actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, which tabulates its report results without requiring monthly or annual revisions. The Retail Monitor leverages Affinity Solutions’ data from over 140 million credit and debit cards, with nearly nine billion transactions totaling more than $500 billion in annual spending.”
Except for the tables presented, SGB Media rounds all variance percentages under 1 percent to the closest tenth of a percent.
To download the full CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Report for December 2025, go here.
Data and table courtesy CNBC, NRF and Affinity Solutions
