The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that retail sales slowed on a month-over-month (m/m) basis in September after a busy summer, but year-over-year (y/y) sales increases remain strong as retailers prepare for the Holiday selling season, according to data compiled in the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report.
“Retail sales dipped in September as consumers hit the pause button after two solid months of back-to-school spending,” offered NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Amid continued economic uncertainty, consumers opted to preserve spending power in preparation for the important holiday season. While month-over-month spending data has fluctuated as consumers have reacted to changing circumstances, year-over-year gains show robust growth and signal momentum as we head into the holidays.”
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor report estimates that Total Retail Sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 0.66 percent seasonally adjusted m/m but up 5.4 percent unadjusted y/y in September. That compares with increases of 6.8 percent y/y in August and 5.9 percent y/y in July.
The CNBC/NRF report’s calculation of Core Retail Sales was down 0.49 percent m/m in September but up 5.7 percent y/y. That compares with increases of 6.7 percent y/y in August and 5.9 percent y/y in July.
Total retail sales were said to be up 5.1 percent y/y for the first eight months of the calendar year (YTD), and core sales were up 5.3 percent versus the 2024 YTD period.
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reports “actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions, which tabulates its report results without requiring monthly or annual revisions. The Retail Monitor leverages Affinity Solutions’ data from over 140 million credit and debit cards, with nearly nine billion transactions totaling more than $500 billion in annual spending.”
NRF reported that August sales were up in all but one of nine categories on a year-over-year basis, led again by Digital Products, Sporting Goods Stores and Clothing, including Footwear and Accessories stores, and were down in five out of nine categories on a month-over-month basis.
The sector that includes Sporting Goods stores was up 8.8 percent y/y in August 2025 after posting 9.0 percent y/y growth in August and 9.9 percent year-over-year growth in July.
Growth in the Clothing and Accessories stores sector, which includes Footwear stores, continued to build on its solid July and August gains, rising 7.4 percent in September 2025, after year-over-year sales increased 8.3 percent in August. The Building and Garden Supply Stores sector was again the only sector to decline year-over-year.
Year-Over-Year Change in Retail Sales, Unadjusted
To download the full CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Report for July 2025, go here.
Image courtesy Paragon Sports, Data and table courtesy CNBC, NRF and Affinity Solutions
