Circana, the market research and technology company based in Chicago, reports in its annual holiday purchase intentions report, based on a consumer survey, that over 80 percent of respondents who plan to shop for the holidays expect prices to be higher this year than last because of tariffs and other economic factors, leading them to start earlier to avoid possible price increases and to take advantage of early-season promotions.

Circana notes that the 2025 holiday shopping season “will be less predictable and more spread out than any other year.”

Overall, most of the surveyed respondents who plan to shop for the holidays expect to spend about the same as last year, but there is an increase in those who plan to spend more.

“The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the holiday shopping season, which means the flow of the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor for Circana. “While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day.”

Going hand-in-hand with the expectations of higher prices, on average, Circana reports that consumers plan to spend $796 on holiday shopping this year, or 3 percent higher than last year’s spending intentions. Higher prices could result in fewer gift purchases, as 31 percent of consumers plan to buy fewer items this holiday. Meanwhile, 34 percent of consumers who intend to shop for the holidays plan to take advantage of deals.

Timing
According to Circana, nearly half of surveyed respondents plan to start their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, with 24 percent having already begun or completed their shopping, a nearly 4 percentage point increase from last year. Black Friday remains the most popular of the “traditional” holiday shopping days, with 19 percent of consumers planning to use it as the “kick-off to their holiday shopping.”

The number of consumers planning to wait until December, starting their holiday shopping late, is the lowest (19 percent) it has been in recent years.

Other findings Circana found from its survey:

  • Practicality will take center stage as consumers plan to spend more on home appliances, housewares and sporting goods.
  • Consumers also plan to spend more on lower-cost indulgences, such as beauty products. However, planned spending is down for some of the traditionally higher-ticket purchases, including technology, electronics and home improvement products.
  • Nearly two-thirds of the surveyed respondents indicated that their household grocery costs will impact their holiday shopping this year.

“The volatility of consumers is evident in their feelings about the holiday shopping season, which means the flow of the 2025 holiday shopping season will be less predictable,” said Cohen. “While consumer spending to date has demonstrated resilience, final retail holiday results will be greatly influenced by the timing of everything from promotions to the news of the day. Marketers will need to be diligent in their efforts to inspire the consumer, whether it is tapping into pent-up demand for products from key industries, like apparel, toys and technology, or appealing to the consumer’s core value of the moment — whether price or priority.”