Noticing U.S. continued consumer resilience “to demonstrate their resiliency and flexibility in navigating the challenges facing them,” Circana, LLC. reported U.S. retail dollar sales revenue grew 2 percent while unit demand remained flat during the four weeks of November compared to the same time in 2024.
“Consumers appear nimble as they bend and stretch their ability to purchase amid an abundance of headwinds hitting their wallets,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “But the struggle to exceed last October’s soft comps resulting from pre-election distraction makes it clear that their resiliency is being tested heading into the core holiday shopping period.”
Examination of each retail industry provides insight into the consumer’s continued prioritization of spending on food over more discretionary purchases. Retail food and beverage sales revenue was up 3 percent, and unit sales were up 1 percent. Non-edible consumer packaged goods dollars were up 1 percent, while unit sales declined 2 percent. Discretionary general merchandise retail dollar sales declined 1 percent, and unit demand fell 4 percent compared to the same period a year ago.
Declines in discretionary spending and unit demand as the holiday shopping season gets underway are an indication of current consumer volatility, particularly in light of early season declines in 2024. To date, through the week ending November 8, 2025, fourth-quarter sales revenue of discretionary general merchandise is down 1 percent from the same time in 2024, and unit demand is down 3 percent. Compared to the same period in 2023, discretionary general merchandise sales are down 10 percent in dollars and 9 percent in units.
Holiday Tracking: Q4-to-Date Trends
The stage is set for a rocky start to the holiday shopping season. As stated in Circana’s 2025 Holiday Purchase Intentions study, holiday spending is projected to decline by 1 percent to 2 percent compared to last year, with unit sales falling by as much as 2.5 percent during the traditional November and December shopping period.
“The holiday season does not bring more money into consumers’ pockets, which means pockets of retail growth will not be robust,” said Cohen. “Early shopping behavior will influence the balance of the holiday season, so marketers need to put their best foot forward now in order to capture their share of a discerning market.”
