According to Circana’s annual holiday purchase intentions consumer survey, 44 percent of respondents said they plan to start shopping earlier this year, before Thanksgiving.
Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor for Circana, said, “Today’s consumer is more focused on planning and prioritizing on their quest for value. Getting an earlier start on holiday shopping gives them more control and choice when it comes to making a purchase decision, rather than feeling the pressure of filling a last-minute need.”
Intentions to start holiday shopping before Thanksgiving have returned to the level seen ahead of the 2023 holiday season (47.6 percent), an increase from last year’s dip to 44.8 percent, according to Circana. Intentions for mid-season (Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Thanksgiving weekend and Cyber Monday) and late-season shopping have both declined. However, those last-minute shoppers who plan to wait until early December or later to start their holiday shopping are at the lowest level in four years (19.2 percent), continued Circana, an advisor on the complexities of consumer behavior.
While most consumers plan to start holiday shopping early in the season, 19 percent have their sights set on Black Friday as the kickoff day. In 2024, Black Friday maintained its position as the top shopping day of the fourth quarter across physical and digital retail. Again in 2025, Black Friday was identified by Circana as the time when the largest share of consumers (23 percent) expects to find the best deals.
Promotions will have a greater influence on holiday shopping this year, with 37 percent of surveyed respondents noting that they will buy more items on sale or promotion to save money. However, early-season promotions exposed a byproduct of expected sales events: the anticipation of the promotional periods creates a wait-and-see attitude among those surveyed, which leads to a purchasing pullback in advance of the promotion itself.
“Even with lower prices, consumers have become less impulsive, doubling down on their ‘need now, buy now’ mindset,” added Cohen. “Marketers need to continue to assess ways to achieve dynamic success with consumers by making their brand, their store, a destination that hits the mark on product and value at the right time.”
Image courtesy JCPenney
