Analysis of data compiled from the AlixPartners 2026 U.S. Consumer and Executive Footwear Survey, in partnership with the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), resulted in a forecast that Athletic Footwear and Athleisure Footwear sales will climb 11 percent year-over-year in the U.S. for the 2026 back-to-school (BTS) season, boosted in part by the World Cup.

The growth rate in the Athletic and Athleisure categories is expected to be the fastest across footwear categories.

AlixPartners said the timing of the World Cup, held in June and July, pulled forward some purchases and may also have driven some splurge spending. Almost a third of those surveyed said footwear purchases were influenced by celebrity endorsement. Many World Cup stars, including Argentina’s Lionel Messi, France’s  Kylian Mbappé , England’s Jude Bellingham and Norway’s Erling Haaland, saw their popularity surge during the tournament.

Bryan Eshelman, partner and managing director at AlixPartners, said in a media release, “The World Cup is definitely a tailwind for the big athletic footwear brands.”

Overall, however, the survey of over 1,000 U.S. adults in June found parents to be even more price-conscious than the previous year’s survey in the face of persistently high food and energy costs but still prioritizing quality and brands.

AlixPartners noted that footwear prices jumped significantly in response to tariffs, shipping, and materials, with increases for teens and children outpacing those for adult shoes. BTS buyers in the survey expect prices to further rise over the next six months, with a third planning to trim their purchases from last year. Among the respondents, 78 percent said prices feel higher, yet most rate value as the same or better.

Overall, 44 percent are planning to spend less than $100/child (up from 40 percent a year ago), indicating shrinking budgets. Purchasing intentions further continue to diverge sharply by income, with more affluent tiers projected to spend 4 percent more compared with last year and lower tiers trimming 10 percent from their footwear budgets.

The survey also found back-to-school shopping continues to be pulled forward as buyers try to lock in prices and secure availability, with quality outpacing quantity.  Of the respondents, 30 percent had already started their BTS shopping by the time of the June survey was taken, with a third indicating they’d shifted earlier than last year. Among the rest, 22 percent indicated they’d start their BTS shopping on July 4, 37 percent between July 5 and August 15, and 11 percent after August 15.

The survey showed parents placing less priority on comfort, quality/durability and size availability as they look to save money.

Still, AlixPartners showed consumers are sticking with trusted brands, so long as quality and durability hold.  Of the respondents, 39 percent will cut pairs before switching to cheaper brands.

Eshelman said, “Consumers are responding by demanding quality and buying fewer pairs rather than lower-priced shoes.”

Asked what cost-savings measures they’ll pursue to offset the higher prices, the top answer was stick to the brands, but buy fewer pairs, cited by 39 percent; followed in the top five by switching to lower price retailers, 33 percent;  buying fewer pairs of shoes overall, 30 percent; trading down to cheaper brands, 25 percent; and shopping earlier in the season, 21 percent.

Other findings from the consumer survey:

  • Sales are split evenly between in-store and online. Of the respondents, 35 percent plan to do the majority of their BTS shopping online and 34 percent in-store.
  • Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of respondents will shop promotional events, 26 percent plan to use no AI tools.
  • Amazon is growing in BTS frequency (+4.1 percent) and household reach (+9.4 percent), but with a lower unit spend.
  • Outlets are surging, showing unexpected strength.

Image courtesy Journeys