Adobe is reporting that its online shopping forecast for the 2026 holiday season is set to cross the $275 billion milestone, with a pre-season spending uptick in October. The forecast, which is based on Adobe Analytics data, which is said to provide the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing direct transactions online covering the period from November 1 to December 31, 2026.

“Adobe’s forecast is based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories – more than any other technology company or research organization,” the company said in a media release.

Adobe said it expects U.S. online sales to hit $275.1 billion this holiday season, growing 6.7 percent year-over-year (y/y). Cyber Week (the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday) is reportedly expected to drive $47.5 billion in online sales this year (up 7.4 percent y/y), representing 17.3 percent of the full holiday season consumer spend.

Adobe said the Amazon Prime Day event in October, which began in 2021, has become an industrywide e-commerce moment, with discounts happening broadly across U.S. retailers. It is now driving significant consumer spend in advance of the holiday season.

Adobe expects $95.8 billion will be spent online in October 2026, up a notable 8 percent y/y. Nearly $10 billion will be spent during the Prime Day event from October 6 to October 7 ($9.9 billion, up 9.2 percent y/y), driven in part by discounts that are set to peak at 19 percent off listed price. This has changed the shape of the holiday season, pushing U.S. retailers to manage promotions and inventory effectively to capture an additional pre-season spike in shopping interest.

Cyber Monday, which falls on November 30 this year, is expected to set a new milestone for U.S. e-commerce, with consumers spending $15.1 billion (+6.2 percent y/y) in a single day. The second biggest day of the season is expected to be Black Friday with $12.9 billion is online sales, up 9.2 percent y/y. The faster growth on Black Friday versus Cyber Monday was said to be driven in part by having the biggest discounts for categories such as TVs, apparel and appliances.

Thanksgiving Day is not just a day for family and football anymore. The traditional day for families across the U.S. to engage in their annual Turkey Bowl match ups and watching back-to-back NFL games is set to drive $6.9 billion in online sales – up 8.5 percent y/y – bolstered by impulse shopping and deep discounts, especially in Sporting Goods.

Category Gainers
Of the full holiday season spend, Adobe said Electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9 percent y/y) and Apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7 percent y/y) remain “tentpole categories” in e-commerce, but consumers are also embracing other categories online with stronger growth observed in Furniture ($33.4 billion, up 7.3 percent y/y), Grocery ($26.1 billion, up 10.3 percent y/y), Toys ($9.6 billion, up 9.6 percent y/y) and Cosmetics ($9.2 billion, 9.5 percent y/y).

Consumers Looking for Strong Discounts
Adobe said it expects competitive discounts this holiday season, up to 30 percent off listed price (during Cyber Week). Shoppers will see deals throughout the season, up to 14 percent in early November, up to 21 percent just before Thanksgiving and up to 10-15 percent throughout December.

Across categories, deals will be on par with the 2025 season. Adobe noted that d iscounts in Electronics are expected to peak at 30 percent off listed price (vs. 30.1 percent in 2025), while discounts for Toys are set to hit 29 percent (vs. 28 percent in 2025). Notable discounts are also expected in TVs at 23 percent (vs. 24.2 percent LY), Computers at 23 percent (vs. 22.8 percent), Apparel at 23 percent (vs. 23.2 percent), Sporting Goods at 19 percent (vs. 19.5 percent), Appliances at 18 percent (vs. 19.2 percent) and Furniture at 18 percent (vs. 19 percent).

“Shoppers will find the deepest discounts for electronics and computers on Cyber Monday, but the best deals for TVs, Toys, Apparel, Appliances and Furniture is expected to land on Black Friday,” the company stated. “Thanksgiving Day is expected to have the best deals for Sporting Goods.

While consumers have historically embraced holiday deals to buy gifts or adopt the latest gadgets, many are taking advantage of discounts to stock up on essentials. During Cyber Week, online sales of personal hygiene products are expected to jump 150 percent (compared to average sales levels in September 2026) and clothing basics by 210 percent. Other essentials set to see a boost include baby products (up 113 percent), pet products (up 93 percent) and household cleaning items (up 49 percent).

Mobile Makes It
A record 63 percent of online spend is set to come through mobile devices this year, up from 61.6 percent in 2025, outpacing the full season share where mobile is expected to account for 57.4 percent of overall spend – up from 56.4 percent in 2025.

AI Traffic Growth
Adobe expects AI traffic to U.S. retail sites this holiday season (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) to rise 130 percent y/y. The biggest uptick is expected on Thanksgiving (up 159 percent y/y), followed by Black Friday (up 95 percent y/y) and Cyber Monday (up 88 percent y/y). In an Adobe survey* of 5,000 consumers, 77 percent of respondents who have used AI for online shopping report feeling more confident in their purchase, and 69 percent say they are less likely to return an item they bought.

Social Media & Affiliates
Affiliates/Partners, which includes social influencers, and Social Media overall are set to see the biggest gains in share of revenue, up 12 percent and 17 percent, respectively, versus last year. In comparison, Paid Search is expected to rise by 4 percent. Within the Affiliates/Partner category, cashback and rewards partners leads in affiliate traffic with a 36 percent share, followed by influencers and creators at 22 percent.

Adobe said this should highlight the importance of partner and social-led acquisition for U.S. retailers, during the holiday season.

Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe CX Enterprise, relied upon by global brands to accelerate Customer Experience Orchestration, connecting data, content and AI to deliver real-time, personalized interactions.

Image under license with Adobe Stock