Adobe expects online sales to rise 5.3 percent year-over-year (YoY) to a record $253.4 billion this holiday season, marking a sharp slowdown from the 8.7 percent growth from November 1 to December 31 last year, as consumers restrain spending and search for deals. They also expect the holiday season to remain promotional, like the 2024 season.

The findings are based on Adobe Analytics data, which analyzes direct online sales transactions covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.

Adobe forecasts that a record 10 days will see consumers spend over $5 billion in one day, up from 7 days last year.

Cyber Week, the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, is expected to drive 17.2 percent of overall consumer spending this season, at $43.7 billion (up 6.3 percent YoY).

Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the holiday season and the year, at $14.2 billion (up 6.3 percent YoY). However, Adobe expects Black Friday to see higher growth this season, rising 8.3 percent YoY at $11.7 billion.

On Thanksgiving, the agency expects consumers to spend $6.4 billion online (up 4.9 percent YoY).

Mobile devices are expected to further solidify their position as the dominant shopping platform this season, accounting for a record 56.1 percent share of online spending, compared to desktop shopping. This represents $142.7 billion, up 8.5 percent YoY. Adobe noted that the shift toward mobile shopping has accelerated significantly in recent years. During the 2020 holiday season, mobile shopping accounted for just 40 percent of online spending.

Buy Now Pay Later to Drive an Additional $2 Billion
Adobe expects Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) to drive $20.2 billion in online spend (up 11 percent YoY). This is roughly $2 billion more than last year’s 2024 holiday season, when BNPL drove $18.2 billion in online spend. BNPL usage on Cyber Monday is expected to hit a new record and cross $1 billion ($1.04 billion, up 5 percent YoY). Usage on Black Friday is set to also be strong, with significant YoY growth ($761.8 million, up 11 percent YoY). The vast majority of BNPL spend is expected to come from mobile devices this season at 79 percent share (vs. desktop), representing $15.6 billion (up 8.3 percent YoY).

Competitive Discounts Expected This Season as Retailers Compete for Dollars
Adobe expects significant discounts this holiday season, up to 28 percent off the list price, which are on par with those from last year’s holiday season. Discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 28 percent off the list price, compared to 30.1 percent in 2024, while discounts for toys are set to reach 27 percent (vs. 28 percent last year. Competitive discounts are also expected in apparel at 25 percent (vs. 23.2 percent), TVs at 23 percent (vs. 24.2 percent), computers at 23 percent (vs. 22.8 percent), sporting goods at 19 percent (vs. 19.5 percent), appliances at 18 percent (vs. 19.2 percent), and furniture at 18 percent (vs. 19 percent).

The deepest discounts are expected to be available throughout Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday being the ‘last call’ for the best deals. Thanksgiving Day (November 27) will be the best day to shop for sporting goods. On Black Friday (November 28), consumers can expect the deepest discounts on TVs, toys, and appliances. And Cyber Monday (December 1) will be the best day to shop for electronics, apparel and computers.

Competitive discounts are expected to drive consumers to “trade up” to higher-ticket items in certain categories. The share of units sold for the most expensive goods is set to rise by 56 percent in sporting goods, 52 percent in electronics, 39 percent in appliances, 32 percent in personal care, and 26 percent in tools/home improvement. The trend reverses in groceries (down 3 percent) and furniture (down 8 percent), as consumers seek lower-priced items in these categories.

Electronics, Apparel and Home Goods to Drive Online Growth
Adobe forecasts over half (53.7 percent) of online spending this holiday season will be driven by three categories, including electronics ($57.5 billion, up 4 percent YoY), apparel ($47.6 billion, up 4.4 percent YoY) and furniture ($31.1 billion, up 6.5 percent YoY). Smaller categories, on a spend basis, that are seeing higher growth include groceries ($23.5 billion, up 9.2 percent YoY) and cosmetics ($8.4 billion, up 9.1 percent YoY).

Adobe expects an increase in home purchases this holiday season, as consumers take advantage of deals to upgrade their living spaces.

Online sales are expected to rise by 1,060 percent in power tools (compared to average spend levels from January to August 2025), along with home security products (up 1,050 percent), TVs (up 915 percent), refrigerators/freezers (up 910 percent), and smart home devices (up 615 percent). Health monitoring is another growth area this season, with online sales of activity trackers set to rise 1,055 percent, along with smartwatches (up 950 percent) and other bio-monitors (up 385 percent).

Additionally, Adobe expects strong growth in the gaming category, with online sales expected to surge in consoles (up 1,040 percent), games (up 830 percent) and accessories (up 820 percent).

Hot sellers this season are expected to include gaming consoles (Nintendo Switch 2, Sony PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X) along with games (Donkey Kong Bananza, Elden Ring: Nightreign, Madden NFL 26, NBA 2k26, EA Sports FC 26, and Call of Duty: Black Ops 7). Top-selling toys are expected to include Disney Stitch Puppetronic, Labubu Dolls, MrBeast Lab Toys, Fisher-Price Little People, LEGO sets, and Mini Brands Capsules. Other hot sellers this season include iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10, Samsung Galaxy S25, Oura Ring 4, Kindle Colorsoft, DJI Osmo Pocket 3, and Dyson Airwrap Multi Styler.

Online Shopping Behaviors Influenced by Generative AI and Social Media

  • AI-powered shopping: Adobe stated that “generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are transforming consumer behavior online, serving as a helpful assistant for compiling research before making a purchase.” Adobe observed the first material surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) during the 2024 season, with traffic “increasing 1,300 percent YoY.” For the 2025 season, Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by “520 percent YoY, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving.” Additionally, AI services are expected to be used most frequently for categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care. In an Adobe survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, over one-third report having used an AI-powered service for online shopping, with the top use cases including research (53 percent of respondents), product recommendations (40 percent), finding deals (36 percent), and gift inspiration (30 percent).
  • Social influence: Advertising across social media platforms is expected to be a substantial growth driver this holiday season. Its share of online revenue (purchases attributed to social traffic) is expected to rise by 51 percent YoY, a significant increase from the 2024 holiday season, where growth was at 5 percent YoY. In affiliates and partners, which include social media influencers, the growth is also notable at 14 percent YoY. While major channels such as paid search and email continue to be reliable drivers of traffic and sales online, consumers are increasingly turning to social media to discover and learn about new products.